Advantage Data High Yield Bond Market Summary

European Bond Research - April 16, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Apr 16, 2019 11:56:01 AM
U.K. WAGES GREW AT THE FASTEST PACE IN OVER A DECADE increasing by 3.5 percent in the last quarter.  Matt Hughes a labor market analyst stated, "Earnings have now been growing ahead of inflation for over a year, but in real terms, wage levels have not yet returned to their pre-downturn peak."  Britain’s unemployment hit a four-decade low of 3.9 percent indicating the Brexit stalemate has not negatively impacted the labor market, in addition, employment hit a new all-time high of 76.1 percent. The UK 10-year Gilt dipped 0.1 basis points.  FTSE 100  +0.52%, German DAX +0.68%,  CAC 40 +0.33%, STOXX Europe 600 +0.68%.

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EUROPEAN EQUITIES ADVANCED FOR THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE DAY lifted by bank and retail earnings, “This optimism is really feeding into the European banking sector as well.  When they will start to announce their earnings, the expectations are high…” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at TF Global Markets.  Italy significantly cuts its 2019 GDP forecast to 0.1 percent from 1 percent and increased its budget deficit forecast to 2.5 percent, which surpasses the allotted 2.04 percent deficit issued by the European Union.  Italy’s largest bank, UniCredit SpA, agreed to pay $1.3 billion to the U.S. Government pledging guilty to federal and state criminal charges using the U.S. financial system to illegally move hundreds of millions of dollars in violation of U.S. sanctions on Iran.  ADI (Advantage Data Inc.) extensive corporate-bond index data showed a net daily yield increment for high-grade versus high-yield constituents. High-yield bonds edged out high-grade debt as of 3 PM, London time.  Among European high-yield bonds showing a concurrence of top price gains at appreciable volumes traded,  Viacom Inc. (USD) 5.875% 2/28/2057 made some analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for  Viacom Inc. bonds below). Corey Mahoney (cmahoney@advantagedata.com).

Sovereign-Debt Snapshot

Country Maturity (Y) Yield (%) Previous (%) Spread (bp)
Australia 10 1.893 1.869 -66.5  
Belgium  10 0.495 0.434 -206.2  
France  10 0.402 0.334 -215.5  
Germany  10 0.059 -0.007 -249.9  
Italy  10 2.395 2.372 -16.2  
Japan  10 -0.048 -0.059 -260.5  
Netherlands  10 0.134 0.073 -242.3  
Portugal  10 1.169 1.130 -138.8  
Spain  10 1.053 1.009 -150.4  
Sweden  10 0.264 0.228 -229.3  
U.K.  10 1.214 1.150 -134.3  
U.S.  10 2.557 2.498 ...

Credit-Default Swap Market

LATEST NEWS: Top moves, sovereign tighteners (5Y): China 41 bp and Finland 12 bp. Sovereign wideners (5Y): France 27 bp and Germany 11 bp.

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New Issuance

New Issues New Issues [Continued]

1. Basellandsch KTBK (CHF) 0.375% 5/13/2030 (04/15/2019):180MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100.865, Yielding .3%.

 

ADI Indexes

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DATA CHECK:
iShares Core EUR UCITS iShares Euro High Yield UCITS
NAV as of 04/16/2019, 131.41 NAV as of 04/16/2019, 104.55
Daily NAV Change (%) +0.03% Daily NAV Change (%) +0.11%

OVERALL EUROPEAN CREDIT MARKET:
The euro-zone economy shows signs of positive momentum, although conditions are expected to deteriorate hindered by the termination of quantitative easing, weakening credit rating quality, and uncertainty regarding the outcome of Brexit. Closely watched indicators and rates:
  • Eurostat's unemployment rate: currently 7.8% (seasonally adjusted, February 2019)
  • Eurostat's quarterly GDP: 0.2% (2018 Q3 Final)
  • 6-month Euribor: current value -0.231%, as of 04/15/2019

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Topics: Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, corporate bonds, market analytics, New Issues, News, research, EU, market update, European


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