European Bond Research - March 11, 2019

Posted by Niral Mehta on Mar 11, 2019 12:19:12 PM
EUROPEAN MARKETS TICKED UP ON MONDAY as investors await a critical Brexit vote on Tuesday regarding Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal.  European officials revealed there was no progress this past weekend, “May has boxed herself even deeper into a corner, it seems the second meaningful vote will go ahead on Tuesday but it also seems like it won’t be the last meaningful vote on this”.  May, once again, faces a landslide defeat in Parliament if she does not delay the vote.  Financial firms are estimated to shift an immense $1.2 trillion in assets from the UK to the European Union.  The UK 10-year Gilt dipped 1.4 basis points. FTSE 100 +0.28%, STOXX Europe 600 +0.45%, CAC 40 -0.48%, German DAX +0.42%

GERMAN INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT SLIPPED in wake of weak auto production data dragging the output lower.  In January, auto production plummeted 9.2 percent analysts associate the sharp decline in demand from China for the lackluster performance.  A Mizuho strategist stated, “Industrial production is hard data and it is really cementing the impression that the European economy is slowing down”.  The 10-year German government bond collapsed 10 percent, yielding 0.064%. ADI (Advantage Data Inc.) corporate-bond index data showed a net daily yield increment for high-grade versus high-yield constituents. High-grade bonds edged out high-yield debt as of 3 PM, London time. Among European high-grade bonds showing a concurrence of top price gains at appreciable volumes traded, Virgin Media Finance PLC (USD) 5.25% 1/15/2021 made some analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for Virgin Media Finance PLC bonds below.) Corey Mahoney (cmahoney@advantagedata.com).

Sovereign-Debt Snapshot

Country Maturity (Y) Yield (%) Previous (%) Spread (bp)
Australia 10 2.042 2.096 -58.9  
Belgium  10 0.541 0.555 -208.9  
France  10 0.412 0.425 -221.8  
Germany  10 0.071 0.067 -255.9  
Italy  10 2.498 2.487 -13.2  
Japan  10 -0.032 -0.009 -266.2  
Netherlands  10 0.160 0.160 -247.0  
Portugal  10 1.344 1.339 -128.6  
Spain  10 1.053 1.056 -157.7  
Sweden  10 0.292 0.316 -233.9  
U.K.  10 1.190 1.173 -144.0  
U.S.  10 2.630 2.641 ...

Credit-Default Swap Market

LATEST NEWS: Top moves, sovereign tighteners (5Y): Denmark 10 bp and Ireland 36 bp. Sovereign wideners (5Y): Germany 11 bp and Sweden12 bp.

New Issuance

New Issues New Issues [Continued]

1. Erste Group Bank AG (EUR) 0.45% 3/27/2024 (03/11/2019): 50MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding .45%.

 

ADI Indexes

DATA CHECK:
iShares Core EUR UCITS iShares Euro High Yield UCITS
NAV as of 03/011/2019, 129.64 NAV as of 03/11/2019, 103.85
Daily NAV Change (%) 0.00% Daily NAV Change (%) +0.13%

OVERALL EUROPEAN CREDIT MARKET:
The euro-zone economy shows signs of positive momentum, although conditions are expected to deteriorate hindered by the termination of quantitative easing, weakening credit rating quality, and uncertainty regarding the outcome of Brexit. Closely watched indicators and rates:
  • Eurostat's unemployment rate: currently 7.8% (seasonally adjusted, January 2019)
  • Eurostat's quarterly GDP: 0.2% (2018 Q3 Final)
  • 6-month Euribor: current value -0.232%, as of 03/08/2019

Copyright 2019 Advantage Data Inc. All Rights Reserved. http://www.advantagedata.com

Information in this document should not be regarded as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy bonds or any financial instruments referred to herein. All information provided in this document is believed to be accurate. However, Advantage Data and its sources make no warranties, either express or implied, as to any matter whatsoever, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Opinions in this document are subject to change without notice. Electronic redistribution, photocopying and any other electronic or mechanical reproduction is strictly prohibited without prior written permission from Advantage Data Inc.

Topics: Analytics, bonds, bond market, market analytics, research, EU, market update, European


Are you using AdvantageData?

AdvantageData is your fixed income solution for pricing, analytics, reports, and insight on approximately:

  • 500,000+ U.S. and international corporate bonds
  • Over 6,200+ CDS reference entities
  • Over 22,000+ syndicated loans
  • Over 100 equity markets worldwide
  • One platform 16 products and services from debt to CDS to loans to mid-market
  • Used by top buy and sell-side firms worldwide

Subscribe to Email Updates

Recent Posts