Advantage Data High Yield Bond Market Summary

High Yield Bond Research - July 11, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Jul 11, 2019 5:08:31 PM
US MONEY-MARKET FUNDS pulled in $28 billion in the week ended Wednesday marking the third consecutive week of inflows rising to the highest levels since 2009. A weak global economic outlook and trade concerns have sparked fear in investors fleeing to assets with minimal risk. Middle market loan issuance rebounded in the second quarter of 2019 spiking 48 percent. “Clearly the volatility at the end of 2018 had a negative impact on all segments of the loan market in the first quarter.” The S&P 500 hit an all-time high rising above 3,000 for the first time. S&P +0.11%, DOW +0.71, NASDAQ -0.17%. The 10-year note dipped 6.5 basis points.
 
THE NUMBER OF AMERICANS APPLYING FOR UNEMPLOYMENT fell last week to a three-month low reflecting the resilient labor market.  Claims dropped to 209,000 aided by the Independence Day holiday as many people wait until the following week after holidays to apply for benefits. Economists believe a recession will be avoided if the labor market stays warm however, wages are not rising at the speedthey normally do when the economy is robust.  ADI proprietary index data showed a net yield increment for high-yield versus high-grade bonds. High-yield edged out high-grade.  Among high-yield bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded, Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (USD) 4% 12/1/2046 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for Pacific Gas & Electric Co. bonds below.) Corey Mahoney (cmahoney@advantagedata.com).
 
Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   Pacific Gas & Electric Co. 6.05% 3/1/2034 + 0.4%
  Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. 5% 5/31/2026 + 0.9%
-   Frontier Communications Corp. 10.5% 9/15/2022 -1.1%
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries LTD   3.15% 10/1/2026
HCA Inc.   5.25% 4/15/2025
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 0.10% -0.04% 4.90% 5.90% 12.34% 14.07%
Mining 0.31% -0.39% 0.74% -1.06% 8.27% 2.75%
Construction 0.05% -0.07% 1.59% 3.33% 11.10% 9.04%
Manufacturing 0.05% -0.17% 1.34% 2.17% 9.37% 7.61%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas 0.06% -0.21% 1.43% 3.09% 10.09% 8.97%
Wholesale -0.01% -0.15% 1.48% 2.99% 10.63% 7.70%
Retail 0.08% -0.43% 1.10% 3.43% 12.34% 9.63%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate 0.06% -0.16% 1.65% 2.67% 10.21% 9.37%
Services 0.07% -0.16% 1.06% 2.46% 10.06% 9.13%
Public Administration 0.02% -0.18% 1.97% 3.80% 10.07% 14.00%
Energy 0.27% -0.45% 0.79% -0.12% 8.58% 3.34%
 
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

unnamed - 2019-07-11T170640.371

New Issues Forward Calendar

1. Micron Technology Inc. (USD) 4.185% 2/15/2027 (07/10/2019):900MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.995, Yielding 4.19%.

2. MTS Systems Corp. (USD) 5.75% 8/15/2027 144A (07/11/2019):350MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 5.75%.

1. Calpine Corp.: $1.4B bonds, Expected Q2 2019

2. E.W. Scripps: $1.85B term loans and unsecured debt, Expected Q2 2019

Additional Commentary


NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 7/11/19 participants welcome a $350MM new corporate-bond offering by MTS Systems Corp . The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 6/21/19, with a net outflow of $602MM, year-to-date $8.9B flowed into high-yield.
 
Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Hertz Corp. (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14)
Cable & Wireless Communication (5Y Sen USD CR14)
Atmos Energy Corp. (5Y Sen USD MR14)

unnamed - 2019-06-27T171147.709

Loans and Credit Market Overview


SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:

Deals recently freed for secondary trading, 
notable secondary activity: 
  • Heritage Power, LLC, Piaggio & C. SpA, Goshawk Aviation Ltd, Valence Surface Technologies
OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:
  • TED spread held below 17 bp (basis points), as of 07/11/19
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds 

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Information in this document should not be regarded as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy bonds or any financial instruments referred to herein. All information provided in this document is believed to be accurate. However, Advantage Data and its sources make no warranties, either express or implied, as to any matter whatsoever, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Opinions in this document are subject to change without notice. Electronic redistribution, photocopying and any other electronic or mechanical reproduction is strictly prohibited without prior written permission from Advantage Data Inc.

Topics: Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update


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