Advantage Data High Yield Bond Market Summary

Investment Grade Bond Research - March 6, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Mar 6, 2019 5:12:16 PM

TREASURY YIELDS SANK as investors scaled back risk fleeing to safe-haven assets on Wednesday. ADP released weak private-sector employment numbers for February, companies added 183,000 jobs compared to estimates of 189,000 jobs slowing to a three-month low.  Investors will keep a keen eye on the Labor Department’s official report to be released on Friday.  The 10-year U.S. Treasury note dipped 3.4 basis points.  S&P -0.66%, Dow -0.51%, NASDAQ -0.92%

U.S. TRADE DEFICIT SURGES TO 10-YEAR HIGHS despite numerous efforts from the White House to reduce the shortfall.  The deficit spiked 19 percent in December alone tallying a walloping $621 billion in 2018.  Majority of the deficit stems from unbalanced trade with China rising 12 percent year-over-year totaling $419 billion. New York Fed President John Williams cooled fears of slowing growth insisting there is “isn’t necessarily a cause for alarm” but a “new normal”.  ADI proprietary index data showed a net yield increment for high-yield versus high-grade bonds. High-grade edged out high-yield. Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded, Anheuser-Busch Inbev Worldwide Inc. (USD) 8.2% 1/15/2039 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for Anheuser-Busch Inbev Worldwide Inc. below) . Corey Mahoney  (cmahoney@advantagedata.com).

Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   JPMorgan Chase & Co. VAR% 12/5/2029 + 0.1%
  CVS Health Corp. 4.1% 3/25/2025 + 0.1%
-   Berkshire Hathaway Finance Corp. 4.25% 1/15/2049 -0.9%
GE Capital Intl. Funding Co.   4.418% 11/15/2035
Barclays PLC   3.65% 3/16/2025
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing -0.02% -0.49% 0.45% 3.01% 2.13% 4.30%
Mining 0.02% -0.29% 0.26% 4.22% 3.34% 3.16%
Construction 0.07% -0.32% 0.53% 3.13% 2.01% 3.63%
Manufacturing 0.01% -0.26% 0.06% 3.10% 2.18% 3.01%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas 0.04% -0.36% 0.37% 3.78% 2.54% 3.68%
Wholesale 0.01% 0.15% 0.64% 3.79% 3.46% 3.12%
Retail 0.03% -0.36% 0.05% 3.01% 2.20% 2.97%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate 0.02% -0.11% 0.45% 2.89% 1.82% 3.79%
Services 0.03% -0.36% 0.05% 3.11% 1.93% 3.53%
Public Administration 0.00% -0.21% 0.19% 1.45% 0.49% 2.96%
Energy 0.04% -0.24% 0.37% 4.42% 3.52% 3.71%
 
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

New Issues New Issues [Continued]

1. PNC Bank NA (USD) FLT% 3/12/2021 (03/05/2019): 1100MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100.

2. Merck & Co. Inc. (USD) 3.9% 3/7/2039 (03/05/2019): 1000MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 98.958, Yielding 3.98%.

3. Brown & Brown Inc. (USD) 4.5% 3/15/2029 (03/05/2019): 350MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.84, Yielding 4.51%.

 

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 3/5/19 participants welcome a $1250MM new corporate-bond offering by
Pfizer Inc.  The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 2/22/19, with a net inflow of $0.69B, year-to-date $9.7B flowed into high-yield.

Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Weatherford International LTD (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Hertz Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14)
Cable & Wireless Communication (5Y Sen USD CR14)
SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14)

Loans and Credit Market Overview

SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:

Deals recently freed for secondary trading, notable secondary activity:
  • Xylem Inc., Amer Sports Corp., Orchid Orthopedic Solutions, Neustar Inc
OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:
Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:
  • TED spread held below 17 bp (basis points), as of 03/06/19
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds

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Topics: Investment Grade, Analytics, bonds, bond market, market analytics, research, market update


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