Advantage Data High Yield Bond Market Summary

Investment Grade Bond Research -  March 8, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Mar 8, 2019 5:15:44 PM

EQUITIES MARK THEIR FIFTH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF DECLINES as investors react to a weak jobs report igniting concerns of a cooling economy. Jonathan Hill, from BMO Capital remained positive, the “Treasury yield moves speak to willingness to look through this”.  Despite the poor report, treasury yields remained stable, the 10-year U.S. Treasury note dipped 1.2 basis points and the 30-year note sank 1.4 basis points.  S&P -0.81%, Dow -0.78%, NASDAQ -1.13% 

U.S. PAYROLLS ADD A TRIVIAL 20,000 JOBS in February, recording the weakest report since September 2017 well below economists’ estimates of 180,000 new jobs and contrary to ADP’s report of 183,000 jobs.  Construction took an acute hit in February losing 31,000 jobs, analysts account climate patterns for the decline. Meanwhile, unemployment dipped to 3.8 percent in the same period from 4 percent in the previous month.  Since emerging from the recession in 2010 nearly 21 million jobs have been created, producing the tightest job market in decades.  Crude futures initially sank 3 percentdespite oil imports rising 20 percent in China, delivery of April crude recovered settling -0.94% lower.
  ADI proprietary index data showed a net yield increment for high-yield versus high-grade bonds. High-grade edged out high-yield. Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded,  Caterpillar Inc (USD) 5.3% 9/15/2035 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for Caterpillar Inc  below) . Corey Mahoney  (cmahoney@advantagedata.com).

Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   21st Century Fox America 5.476% 1/25/2039 144A + 0.1%
  Halfmoon Parent Inc. 3.4% 9/17/2021 144A + 0.0%
-   Diamond 1 Finance Corp. / Diamond 2 Finance Corp. 5.45% 6/15/2023 144A -0.2%
Dell Intl LLC   5.3% 10/1/2029 144A
Midwest Connector Capital Co. LLC   4.625% 4/1/2029 144A
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 0.12% 0.23% 0.76% 2.98% 2.52% 4.40%
Mining 0.18% 0.25% 0.45% 4.40% 3.49% 3.39%
Construction 0.21% 0.51% 0.58% 3.15% 2.30% 3.85%
Manufacturing 0.19% 0.28% 0.27% 3.17% 2.45% 3.16%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas 0.28% 0.45% 0.63% 4.01% 2.98% 4.01%
Wholesale 0.15% 0.49% 0.70% 3.80% 3.60% 3.28%
Retail 0.20% 0.29% 0.22% 3.00% 2.49% 3.19%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate 0.15% 0.24% 0.54% 3.00% 2.10% 3.93%
Services 0.21% 0.34% 0.27% 3.20% 2.26% 3.73%
Public Administration 0.19% 0.25% 0.35% 1.53% 0.79% 3.35%
Energy 0.19% 0.33% 0.58% 4.66% 3.82% 4.02%
 
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

New Issues New Issues [Continued]

1. Line One Peru Metro Expansion Co. LTD (USD) 4.737% 1/10/2033 Reg S (03/07/2019): 156MM Secured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 4.74%.

2. Midwest Connector Capital Company LLC (USD) 4.625% 4/1/2029 Reg S (03/07/2019): 850MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.853, Yielding 4.64%.

 

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 3/7/19 participants welcome a $500MM new corporate-bond offering by
Quest Diagnostics Inc.  The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 2/22/19, with a net inflow of $0.69B, year-to-date $9.7B flowed into high-yield.

Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Weatherford International LTD (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Hertz Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14)
SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD XR14)
San Miguel Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14)

Loans and Credit Market Overview

SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:

Deals recently freed for secondary trading, notable secondary activity:
  • Wynn Resorts LTD., Xylem Inc., Amer Sports Corp., Orchid Orthopedic Solutions, Neustar Inc
OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:
Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:
  • TED spread held below 16 bp (basis points), as of 03/08/19
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds

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Topics: Investment Grade, Analytics, bonds, bond market, market analytics, research, market update


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