Advantage Data High Yield Bond Market Summary

Investment Grade Bond Research - June 17, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Jun 17, 2019 5:26:26 PM

ATTENTION WILL FOCUS ON THE FED’S two-day meeting this week concluding with a monetary policy statement on Wednesday.  A recent survey indicated 40 percent of economists polled expect the Fed to ease economic policy next month.  Over the past 30 days, the 10-year note fell 45 basis points following tariff uncertainties and slowing economic data.  The 10-year note held steady losing 0.4 basis points.  Gold slips from 14-month highs, however, continues to see significant inflows as investors flee to the safe-haven asset. S&P +0.16%, DOW +0.15, NASDAQ +0.69%.

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Topics: High Yield, Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, Finance, Fixed Income, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

High Yield Bond Research - June 17, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Jun 17, 2019 5:23:23 PM
ATTENTION WILL FOCUS ON THE FED’S two-day meeting this week concluding with a   monetary policy statement  on Wednesday.  A recent survey indicated 40 percent of economists polled expect   the Fed to ease economic policy next month.  Over the past 30 days, the   10-year note fell 45 basis points  following tariff uncertainties and slowing economic data.    The 10-year note held steady losing 0.4 basis points .  Gold  slips from  14-month highs, however,  continues to see significant inflows as  investors flee to the safe-haven asset .  S&P  +0.16%,  DOW +0.15,   NASDAQ  +0.69%.
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Topics: Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

Investment Grade Bond Research - June 14, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Jun 14, 2019 5:09:04 PM

STOCKS INITIALLY FELL ON FRIDAY following weak industrial growth from China surprising investors reporting a 17-year low. “The China data certainly is far-reaching, impacting not only China but global markets as well.” Investors will keep a keen eye on the Feds meeting next week speculating on a rate cut. The 10-year note lost 0.1 basis points. Equities recovered in the afternoon from China's disappointing data, S&P +0.03%, DOW +0.14, NASDAQ -0.28%.

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Topics: High Yield, Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, Finance, Fixed Income, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

High Yield Bond Research - June 14, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Jun 14, 2019 5:05:40 PM
STOCKS INITIALLY FELL ON FRIDAY following weak industrial growth from China   surprising investors reporting a 17-year low. “The China data certainly is far-reaching, impacting not only China but global markets as well.” Investors will keep a keen eye on the Feds meeting next week speculating on a rate cut. The 10-year note lost 0.1 basis points. Equities recovered in the afternoon from China's disappointing data, S&P +0.03%,  DOW +0.14,   NASDAQ  -0.28%.
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Topics: Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

European Bond Research - June 14, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Jun 14, 2019 12:04:23 PM
BRITAIN CLAIMS THE GOVERNMENT IS IN “PRETTY GOOD SHAPE”  in the event the country needs to leave the European Union without a deal. Officials believe a   No Deal would provoke a 10 percent spike in food prices catapulting the   economy into a recession. FTSE 100 -0.4%,  German DAX -0.77%,  CAC 40-0.4%,  STOXX Europe 600  -0.53%. The   10-year  Gilt rose 0.3 basis points.
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Topics: Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, corporate bonds, market analytics, New Issues, News, research, EU, market update, European

Investment Grade Bond Research - June 13, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Jun 13, 2019 5:12:59 PM

INVESTMENT GRADE DEBT ROSE AGAINST JUNK BONDS in net prices linked to actual trades as a risk-off sentiment continues. Crude oil spiked following two tankers being attacked near the Strait of Hormuz threatening the global supply, delivery of July crude shot up more than 4 percent before settling up 2.09 percent. Director of research at GraniteShares stated, The nature of these events is that the outcomes are quite binary: either a major supply disruption event transpires or it does not.” The 10-year note lost 2.0 basis points. S&P +0.15%, DOW +0.15, NASDAQ +0.34%.

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Topics: High Yield, Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, Finance, Fixed Income, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

High Yield Bond Research - June 13, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Jun 13, 2019 5:10:17 PM
INVESTMENT GRADE DEBT ROSE AGAINST JUNK BONDS in net prices linked to actual trades as a risk-off sentiment continues. Crude oil spiked  following two tankers being   attacked near the Strait of Hormuz threatening the   global supply , delivery of   July crude shot up more than 4 percent  before settling up 2.09 percent. Director of research at GraniteShares stated,  The nature of these events is that the outcomes are quite binary: either a major supply disruption event transpires or it does not.” The 10-year note lost 2.0 basis points . S&P  +0.15%,  DOW +0.15,   NASDAQ  +0.34%
 
 
THE NUMBER OF AMERICANS FILING UNEMPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS increased last week to a five-week high rising by 3,000 claims.  Despite the modest climb in jobless claims, the   labor market remains robust and unemployment maintains its   near historic 50-year lows.  Trade war flare-ups and the   lack of skilled labor  have hindered the economy   causing anxiety  and a slowdown for hiring in the retail, construction and manufacturing sectors.    ADI proprietary index data showed a net  yield increment for high-yield versus high-grade bonds. High-grade edged out high-yield.  Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded,  Public Service Electric And Gas Company (USD) 5.7% 12/1/2036  made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for   ADI  indexes  above.)  Corey Mahoney ( cmahoney@advantagedata.com).
 
Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   HCA Inc. 5.375% 2/1/2025 + 0.2%
  Whiting Petroleum Corp. 6.625% 1/15/2026 + 0.3%
-   Genworth Financial Inc. 7.625% 9/24/2021 -0.0%
Frontier Communications Corp.   11% 9/15/2025
Chesapeake Energy Corp.   8% 1/15/2025
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 0.13% 0.85% 1.72% 2.68% 7.58% 10.04%
Mining -0.45% -0.19% -2.51% -0.36% 6.46% 1.17%
Construction -0.02% 0.69% 1.12% 3.89% 8.90% 6.63%
Manufacturing -0.08% 0.60% 0.11% 1.95% 7.54% 5.74%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas -0.13% 0.42% 1.21% 3.46% 8.75% 8.08%
Wholesale -0.09% 0.56% 0.84% 2.84% 9.13% 6.03%
Retail -0.05% 0.81% 0.61% 4.86% 11.17% 8.52%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate -0.02% 0.64% 0.77% 2.75% 8.61% 7.83%
Services -0.07% 0.74% 1.13% 3.02% 9.11% 7.98%
Public Administration 0.02% 1.16% 1.47% 2.65% 8.21% 13.49%
Energy -0.43% -0.25% -2.45% -0.35% 6.22% 0.86%
 
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.
New Issues Forward Calendar

1. Outfront Media Capital LLC (USD) 5% 8/15/2027 Reg S (06/13/2019): 650MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 5%.

2. Harsco Corp. (USD) 5.75% 7/31/2027 Reg S (06/13/2019): 500MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 5.75%.

1. Diamondback Energy Inc.: High-yield notes, Expected Q2 2019

2. Harsco Corp.: Unsecured Debt, Expected Q3 2019

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 6/13/19 participants welcome a $500MM new corporate-bond offering by Harsco Corp. The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 6/7/19, with a net outflow of $3.2B, year-to-date $6.6B flowed into high-yield.
 
Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Hertz Corp. (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14)
SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14)
Atmos Energy Corp. (5Y Sen USD MR14)

Loans and Credit Market Overview

SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:

Deals recently freed for secondary trading, 
notable secondary activity: 
  • Perforce Software Inc., Avantor Performance Materials Inc., United PF Holdings LLC
Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:
  • TED spread held below 22 bp (basis points), as of 06/13/19
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds 

Copyright 2019 Advantage Data Inc. All Rights Reserved. http://www.advantagedata.com

Information in this document should not be regarded as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy bonds or any financial instruments referred to herein. All information provided in this document is believed to be accurate. However, Advantage Data and its sources make no warranties, either express or implied, as to any matter whatsoever, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Opinions in this document are subject to change without notice. Electronic redistribution, photocopying and any other electronic or mechanical reproduction is strictly prohibited without prior written permission from Advantage Data Inc.

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Topics: Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

European Bond Research - June 13, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Jun 13, 2019 12:05:55 PM
EUROZONE CREDITORS FOREWARN THAT GREECE  is in danger of missing its budget targets, therefore, risk of   falling short  of its agreed upon commitment last year. “ We are concerned that the fiscal measures adopted last month put the fiscal target of the primary surplus of 3.5% of GDP at risk.” Investors remain optimistic as   Greek stocks surge  meanwhile   Greek bond yields plummet  to record lows. FTSE 100 -0.07%,  German DAX +0.37%,  CAC 40  +0.02%,  STOXX Europe 600  +0.15%. The   10-year Gilt dropped 3.2 basis points.
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Topics: Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, corporate bonds, market analytics, New Issues, News, research, EU, market update, European

Investment Grade Bond Research - June 12, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Jun 12, 2019 5:11:48 PM

SUBDUED INFLATION REINFORCES the Fed’s case to “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion" by slashing interest rates. Risk-off sentiment prevailed as investment grade debt rose against high yield bonds in net prices linked to actual trades. The Treasury yield curve steepened on Wednesday ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week signaling expectations of a rate cut. The 10-year note dipped 2.2 basis points. S&P -0.20%, DOW -0.17, NASDAQ -0.38%.

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Topics: High Yield, Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, Finance, Fixed Income, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

High Yield Bond Research - June 12, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Jun 12, 2019 5:07:48 PM
SUBDUED INFLATION REINFORCES  the Fed’s case to “ act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” by slashing interest rates.  Risk-off sentiment prevailed  as investment grade debt rose against high yield bonds in net prices linked to actual trades. The  T reasury yield curve steepened  on Wednesday ahead of the   Fed’s meeting next week  signaling expectations of a rate cut. The 10-year note dipped 2.2 basis points . S&P  -0.20%,  DOW -0.17,   NASDAQ  -0.38%
 
 
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX TICKED HIGHER IN MAY  rising a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent down from a 0.2 percent gain in April.    Gasoline   and used auto prices   dragged the index lower  falling 0.5 percent and 1.4 percent respectively.   Year-over-year CPI declined 2 percent,   “It definitely gives the Fed scope to loosen but I don’t think low core inflation on its own is going to cause the Fed to cut interest rates.” Delivery of   July crude slipped 4.11 percent  marking the third consecutive day of declines upon a report   supplies climbed by 2.2 million barrels.   ADI proprietary index data showed a net  yield increment for high-yield versus high-grade bonds. High-grade edged out high-yield.  Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded,  Microsoft Corp. (USD) 4.2% 11/3/2035  made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for   ADI  indexes  above.)  Corey Mahoney ( cmahoney@advantagedata.com).
 
Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   Petrobras Global Finance BV 8.75% 5/23/2026 + 0.4%
  Citizens Communications Co. 9% 8/15/2031 (1) + 0.4%
-   Teva Pharmaceuticals Fin BV 6.75% 3/1/2028 -1.7%
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.   5% 5/31/2026
Western Digital Corp.   4.75% 2/15/2026
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 0.13% 1.03% 1.57% 2.85% 7.50% 9.32%
Mining 0.21% 0.28% -1.79% 0.56% 7.19% 1.89%
Construction 0.13% 0.84% 1.11% 4.31% 9.21% 6.53%
Manufacturing 0.11% 0.89% 0.31% 2.56% 7.95% 6.28%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas 0.03% 0.71% 1.16% 3.68% 8.86% 7.89%
Wholesale 0.17% 1.04% 0.97% 3.09% 8.97% 5.75%
Retail 0.12% 1.29% 0.78% 4.90% 12.10% 7.64%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate 0.07% 0.76% 0.73% 3.02% 8.69% 7.96%
Services 0.07% 0.96% 1.12% 3.14% 9.06% 8.09%
Public Administration 0.22% 1.27% 1.47% 2.97% 8.19% 13.49%
Energy 0.13% 0.13% -1.81% 0.51% 6.86% 1.50%
 
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.
New Issues Forward Calendar

1. Graphic Packaging International Inc. (USD) 4.75% 7/15/2027 144A (06/11/2019): 300MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 4.75%.

2. Hilton Domestic Operating Co. (USD) 4.875% 1/15/2030 144A (06/11/2019): 1000MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 4.88%.

1. Nexstar Media Group Inc.: Possible new bonds, Expected Q3 2019

2. Harsco Corp.: Unsecured Debt, Expected Q3 2019

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 6/11/19 participants welcome a $1000MM new corporate-bond offering by Hilton Domestic Operating Co.   The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 6/7/19, with a net outflow of $3.2B, year-to-date $6.6B flowed into high-yield.
 
Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Hertz Corp. (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14)
Cable & Wireless Communication (5Y Sen USD CR14)
Atmos Energy Corp. (5Y Sen USD MR14)

Loans and Credit Market Overview

SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:

Deals recently freed for secondary trading, 
notable secondary activity: 
  • Avantor Performance Materials Inc., United PF Holdings LLC, Packers Holdings
Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:
  • TED spread held below 20 bp (basis points), as of 06/12/19
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds 

Copyright 2019 Advantage Data Inc. All Rights Reserved. http://www.advantagedata.com

Information in this document should not be regarded as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy bonds or any financial instruments referred to herein. All information provided in this document is believed to be accurate. However, Advantage Data and its sources make no warranties, either express or implied, as to any matter whatsoever, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Opinions in this document are subject to change without notice. Electronic redistribution, photocopying and any other electronic or mechanical reproduction is strictly prohibited without prior written permission from Advantage Data Inc.

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Topics: Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update


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