THE UK ECONOMY FEELS PRESSURE AS BREXIT LAGS ON. Subdued capital expenditures by businesses has been overlooked as strong employment figures capture opptimism. The tight labourmarket and low investment in capital will likely "accentuate the chronic under-performance of UK productivity," says Goldmanc Sachs economist. RBS announced CEO Ross McEwan will be stepping down and warned that Brexit uncertainty would cloud the revenue picture in the coming months. Deutsche Bank defers questions on broader strategy as merger talks with Commerzbank is abandoned. ADI (Advantage Data Inc.) extensive corporate-bond index data showed a net daily yield increment for high-grade versus high-yield constituents. High-grade bonds edged out high-yield debt as of 3 PM, London time. Among European high-grade bonds showing a concurrence of top price gains at appreciable volumes traded, Lloyds Banking Group PLC (USD) 4.582% 12/10/2025 made some analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for Lloyds Banking Group PLC bonds below). Anna Pickett (apickett@advantagedata.com).
Sovereign-Debt Snapshot
| Country | Maturity (Y) | Yield (%) | Previous (%) | Spread (bp) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 10 | 1.796 | 1.796 | -73.7 | |
| Belgium | 10 | 0.469 | 0.443 | -206.4 | |
| France | 10 | 0.371 | 0.348 | -216.2 | |
| Germany | 10 | -0.006 | -0.010 | -253.9 | |
| Italy | 10 | 2.695 | 2.626 | 16.2 | |
| Japan | 10 | -0.029 | -0.036 | -256.2 | |
| Netherlands | 10 | 0.176 | 0.168 | -235.7 | |
| Portugal | 10 | 1.186 | 1.171 | -134.7 | |
| Spain | 10 | 1.092 | 1.070 | -144.1 | |
| Sweden | 10 | 0.157 | 0.238 | -237.6 | |
| U.K. | 10 | 1.157 | 1.179 | -137.6 | |
| U.S. | 10 | 2.533 | 2.525 | ... | |
Credit-Default Swap Market
New Issuance
| New Issues | New Issues [Continued] |
|---|---|
|
1. ASR Nederland NV (EUR) 3.375% 5/2/2049 (04/25/2019): 500MM Subordinated Notes, Price at Issuance 98.944, Yielding 3.502%. 2. BNP Paribas (USD) 2.545% 7/26/2019 (04/25/2019): 50MM Secured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 2.55%. |
ADI Indexes
| iShares Core EUR UCITS | iShares Euro High Yield UCITS |
| NAV as of 04/26/2019, 132.08 | NAV as of 04/26/2019, 104.04 |
| Daily NAV Change (%) -0.10% | Daily NAV Change (%) -0.04% |
OVERALL EUROPEAN CREDIT MARKET:
The euro-zone economy shows signs of positive momentum, although conditions are expected to deteriorate hindered by the termination of quantitative easing, weakening credit rating quality, and uncertainty regarding the outcome of Brexit. Closely watched indicators and rates:
- Eurostat's unemployment rate: currently 7.8% (seasonally adjusted, February 2019)
- Eurostat's quarterly GDP: 0.2% (2018 Q3 Final)
- 6-month Euribor: current value -0.230%, as of 04/25/2019
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