THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DECLINES TO 7.7% IN THE EUROZONE in March marking the lowest level since September 2008. “The economy remains solid enough not to need extra stimulus… In that regard, wait-and-see remains the most likely ECB monetary policy stance” stated Vanden Houte from ING. Germany’s unemployment rate hovered at 30 year lows of 4.9 percent keeping consumer confidence in an upbeat tone. U.K. car output plummeted 14 percent in March marking the tenth month of declines a clear consequence of the current Brexit stalemate. “Just a few years ago, industry was on track to produce 2 million cars by 2020”, in 2018 output clocked in at 1.52 million units and at the current rate in 2019 1.36 units will be produced. ADI (Advantage Data Inc.) extensive corporate-bond index data showed a net daily yield increment for high-grade versus high-yield constituents. High-grade bonds edged out high-yield debt as of 3 PM, London time. Among European high-grade bonds showing a concurrence of top price gains at appreciable volumes traded, Actavis Funding SCS (USD) 4.55% 3/15/2035 made some analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for Actavis Funding SCS bonds below). Corey Mahoney (cmahoney@advantagedata.com).
Sovereign-Debt Snapshot
| Country | Maturity (Y) | Yield (%) | Previous (%) | Spread (bp) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 10 | 1.800 | 1.788 | -73.7 | |
| Belgium | 10 | 0.457 | 0.449 | -208.1 | |
| France | 10 | 0.364 | 0.354 | -217.4 | |
| Germany | 10 | 0.007 | -0.018 | -253.1 | |
| Italy | 10 | 2.582 | 2.583 | 4.5 | |
| Japan | 10 | -0.029 | -0.047 | -256.6 | |
| Netherlands | 10 | 0.181 | 0.165 | -235.6 | |
| Portugal | 10 | 1.124 | 1.128 | -141.4 | |
| Spain | 10 | 1.010 | 1.032 | -152.7 | |
| Sweden | 10 | 0.147 | 0.127 | -239.0 | |
| U.K. | 10 | 1.159 | 1.145 | -137.8 | |
| U.S. | 10 | 2.537 | 2.500 | ... | |
Credit-Default Swap Market
New Issuance
| New Issues | New Issues [Continued] |
|---|---|
|
1. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (EUR) 0.375% 5/3/2024 (04/30/2019): 1000MM Senior Unsecured Notes. 2. Guardian Life Global Funding (USD) 2.9% 5/6/2024 Reg S (04/30/2019): 300MM Secured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.894, Yielding 2.92%. |
ADI Indexes
| iShares Core EUR UCITS | iShares Euro High Yield UCITS |
| NAV as of 04/30/2019, 132.11 | NAV as of 04/30/2019, 104.33 |
| Daily NAV Change (%) +0.08% | Daily NAV Change (%) -0.02% |
OVERALL EUROPEAN CREDIT MARKET:
The euro-zone economy shows signs of positive momentum, although conditions are expected to deteriorate hindered by the termination of quantitative easing, weakening credit rating quality, and uncertainty regarding the outcome of Brexit. Closely watched indicators and rates:
- Eurostat's unemployment rate: currently 7.7% (seasonally adjusted, March 2019)
- Eurostat's quarterly GDP: 0.4% (2019 Q1 Preliminary)
- 6-month Euribor: current value -0.231%, as of 04/29/2019
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