THE GERMAN AUTO INDUSTRY FEARS A 12 PERCENT DECLINE if US tariffs are imposed on European cars, in addition, the DAX could face a 6 percent downturn. “Germany is the tail on the U.S.-China trade war… If they blow up in a trade war, Germany is probably the place that gets hits worse,” CIO Mark Phelps of AllianceBernstein. The economy of the blocs largest nation expanded by 0.4 percent during the first quarter of 2019 despite concerns from German engineering firms regarding an uncertainty with the US and China. ADI (Advantage Data Inc.) extensive corporate-bond index data showed a net daily yield increment for high-grade versus high-yield constituents. High-grade bonds edged out high-yield debt as of 3 PM, London time. Among European high-grade bonds showing a concurrence of top price gains at appreciable volumes traded, Electricite De France (USD) 4.875% 1/22/2044 Reg S made some analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for Electricite De France bonds below). Corey Mahoney (cmahoney@advantagedata.com).
Sovereign-Debt Snapshot
| Country | Maturity (Y) | Yield (%) | Previous (%) | Spread (bp) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 10 | 1.711 | 1.731 | -71.0 | |
| Belgium | 10 | 0.431 | 0.430 | -199.0 | |
| France | 10 | 0.333 | 0.331 | -208.8 | |
| Germany | 10 | -0.067 | -0.068 | -248.8 | |
| Italy | 10 | 2.735 | 2.695 | 31.4 | |
| Japan | 10 | -0.051 | -0.046 | -247.2 | |
| Netherlands | 10 | 0.130 | 0.118 | -229.1 | |
| Portugal | 10 | 1.136 | 1.152 | -128.5 | |
| Spain | 10 | 0.971 | 0.989 | -145.0 | |
| Sweden | 10 | 0.057 | 0.064 | -236.4 | |
| U.K. | 10 | 1.107 | 1.102 | -131.4 | |
| U.S. | 10 | 2.421 | 2.408 | ... | |
Credit-Default Swap Market
New Issuance
| New Issues | New Issues [Continued] |
|---|---|
|
1. Standard Chartered PLC (USD) 0% 6/4/2049 (05/14/2019): 100MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 0%. 2. Fidelity National Info Services Inc (EUR) 0.125% 5/21/2021 (05/14/2019): 500MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.896, Yielding .177%. |
ADI Indexes
| iShares Core EUR UCITS | iShares Euro High Yield UCITS |
| NAV as of 05/15/2019, 131.75 | NAV as of 05/15/2019, 103.06 |
| Daily NAV Change (%) +0.12% | Daily NAV Change (%) -0.02% |
OVERALL EUROPEAN CREDIT MARKET:
The euro-zone economy shows signs of positive momentum, although conditions are expected to deteriorate hindered by the termination of quantitative easing, weakening credit rating quality, and uncertainty regarding the outcome of Brexit. Closely watched indicators and rates:
- Eurostat's unemployment rate: currently 7.7% (seasonally adjusted, March 2019)
- Eurostat's quarterly GDP: 0.4% (2019 Q1 Preliminary)
- 6-month Euribor: current value -0.232%, as of 05/14/2019
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