High Yield Bond Research - July 31, 2019

Posted by Andrew Robartes on Aug 1, 2019 3:57:38 PM
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US STOCKS FELL TODAY AFTER the Federal Reserve announced it will cut interest rates for the first time since 2008. According to Jerome Powell, the 25 basis point cut is a ‘mid-cycle adjustment’ and future cuts may not be necessary. He added that it will provide insurance against global economic risks and boost inflation. The 10-year note lost 4.2 basis points. S&P -1.09%, DOW -1.23%, NASDAQ -1.19%
unnamed - 2019-08-01T155548.357

IN THE CORPORATE BOND SPACE, Las Vegas Sands Corp. recently announced its pricing of $3.5 billion in senior notes. The notes are broken up into 3 separate tranches yielding 3.2% due 2024, 3.5% due 2026, and 3.9% due 2029. The casino and resort company will use the proceeds to repay outstanding term loans and for general corporate purposes. ADI proprietary index data showed a net yield increment for high-grade versus high-yield bondsHigh-grade edged out high-yield.  Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded, Comcast Corp (USD) 6.5% 11/15/2035 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for ADI  indexes above.) Andrew Robartes

Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   Dish DBS Corp. 7.75% 7/1/2026 + 1.2%
  Petrobras Global Finance BV 7.375% 1/17/2027 + 0.2%
-   Lloyds Banking Group PLC VAR% PERP -0.5%
  Southwestern Energy Co. 7.75% 10/1/2027 -0.8%
Tenet Healthcare Corp.   0% 6/15/2023
Genesis Energy LP   6.25% 5/15/2026
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 0.08% -0.09% 0.09% 5.27% 12.01% 12.41%
Mining 0.02% -0.32% -1.49% -3.65% 6.20% 0.20%
Construction -0.08% 0.06% 0.94% 3.02% 11.93% 9.88%
Manufacturing -0.06% 0.21% 0.16% 1.51% 9.61% 7.44%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas -0.12% 0.13% 0.72% 3.15% 11.42% 9.43%
Wholesale -0.04% 0.14% 0.62% 2.55% 11.02% 7.77%
Retail -0.08% 0.24% 0.49% 2.19% 12.52% 9.31%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate -0.08% 0.20% 1.08% 2.93% 11.06% 9.02%
Services -0.12% 0.07% 0.64% 2.44% 10.53% 8.76%
Public Administration 0.12% 0.63% 1.24% 4.75% 11.23% 12.85%
Energy -0.00% -0.30% -1.39% -2.87% 6.59% 1.00%
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

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New Issues Forward Calendar

1. NBM US Hldg, Inc. (USD) 6.625% 8/6/2029 144A (07/30/2019):500MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 6.63%.

2. AG Merger Sub II Inc. (USD) 10.75% 8/1/2027 144A (07/31/2019):350MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 96.14, Yielding 11.49%.

1. Diamondback Energy Inc.: High-yield notes, Expected Q3 2019

2. Atlantica Tender Drilling Ltd: $140MM, Expected Q3 2019

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 7/31/19 participants welcome a $350MM new corporate-bond offering by AG Merger Sub II Inc. The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 7/26/19, with a net inflow of $1.3B, Seven week total $9.0B flowed into high-yield.
Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Rite Aid Corp. (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Weatherford International LTD (5Y Sen USD MR14)
SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD XR14)
San Miguel Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14)

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Loans and Credit Market Overview


Deals recently freed for secondary trading, 
notable secondary activity: 
  • Maxamcorp Holding SL, PLZ Aeroscience Corp., AIR Comm Corp. LLC, Nascar Holdings Inc.
OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:
  • TED spread held below 19 bp (basis points), as of 07/31/19
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds 

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Topics: Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

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