High Yield Bond Research - June 4, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Jun 4, 2019 5:25:00 PM
THE FEDERAL RESERVE INDICATED A POSSIBLE RATE CUT if trade tensions escalate and begin to hamper the economy.  Jerome Powell stressed, “We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”  Delivery of July West Texas Intermediate rose 0.54 percent reversing four straight sessions of declines.  Heightened global trade concerns and volatile markets caused crude to tumble as investors fear demand could be impacted.  The 10-year note further gained 5.8 basis points. S&P +2.14%, DOW +2.06, NASDAQ +2.65%.
THE $1.2 TRILLION LEVERAGED LOAN MARKET will be under scrutiny as a Congressional committee analyzes the risks of aggressive underwriting.  High-profile bankruptcy’s including Toys ‘R’ Us have caught the eyes of regulators in recent years.  US Representative Gregory Meeks stated, “We need to look to discover where the risk may be before the fact,” he said. “We found out too late in the fiscal crisis of 2008.”  The committee is drafting potential legislation, The Leverage Lending Data and Analysis Act to examine and oversee leveraged lending activities and procedures.  ADI proprietary index data showed a net yield increment for high-yield versus high-grade bonds. High-yield edged out high-grade. Among high-yield bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded, Frontier Communications Corp. (USD) 7.625% 4/15/2024 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for Frontier Communications Corp. bonds below.) Corey Mahoney (cmahoney@advantagedata.com).
Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   Teva Pharmaceutical Industries LTD 3.15% 10/1/2026 + 2.3%
  Petrobras Global Finance BV 7.375% 1/17/2027 + 0.1%
-   Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 5% PERP -0.3%
Altice Luxembourg SA   10.5% 5/15/2027 144A
Petrobras Global Finance BV   7.375% 1/17/2027
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing -0.27% 0.07% -0.72% 1.32% 6.82% 9.28%
Mining -0.02% -1.40% -2.94% -1.10% 6.43% 1.33%
Construction 0.04% -0.17% -0.39% 2.96% 7.70% 5.85%
Manufacturing -0.03% -0.60% -1.13% 1.25% 6.90% 5.58%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas -0.03% 0.13% -0.18% 2.55% 7.79% 7.28%
Wholesale -0.08% -0.40% -0.84% 0.92% 7.17% 4.70%
Retail -0.01% -0.33% -0.82% 3.36% 10.62% 9.24%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate -0.03% -0.20% -0.45% 2.03% 7.81% 7.64%
Services -0.05% -0.38% -0.54% 1.57% 7.78% 7.47%
Public Administration 0.12% -0.29% 0.33% 1.81% 7.15% 11.82%
Energy 0.03% -1.44% -2.90% -0.53% 6.37% 1.39%
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

unnamed - 2019-06-05T084159.112

New Issues Forward Calendar

1. Neiman Marcus Group Inc. (USD) 14% 4/25/2024 (06/03/2019):550MM Second Lien Notes, Price at Issuance 97, Yielding 14.87%.

2. GCI Inc. (USD) 6.625% 6/15/2024 144A (06/04/2019): 325MM Senior Unsecured Notes.

1. Nexstar Media Group Inc.: Possible new bonds, Expected Q3 2019

2. Diamondback Energy Inc.: High-yield notes, Expected Q2 2019

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 6/4/19 participants welcome a $325MM new corporate-bond offering by GCI Inc. The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 5/31/19, with a net outflow of $1.3B, year-to-date $9.8B flowed into high-yield.
Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Weatherford International LTD (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Hertz Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14)
Cable & Wireless Communication (5Y Sen USD CR14)
SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14)

unnamed - 2019-06-05T084255.682

Loans and Credit Market Overview


Deals recently freed for secondary trading, 
notable secondary activity: 
  • Packers Holdings, Charles Schwab Corp., Tundra Energy Marketing , Louis Dreyfus Corp.
Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:
  • TED spread held below 16 bp (basis points), as of 06/04/19
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds 

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Topics: Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

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