High Yield Bond Research - June 5, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Jun 5, 2019 5:17:29 PM
INVESTMENT GRADE DEBT ROSE AGAINST ITS HIGH YIELDING COUNTERPARTS in net prices linked to actual trades. The service sector carried the economy in May with a solid performance contrary to recent manufacturing and consumer spending reports. The Fed is overall pleased with the economy as it expanded at “a modest pace overall” showing resilience despite the escalation of trade tensions and a tight labor market. The 10-year note further dipped 2.2 basis points. S&P +0.54%, DOW +0.56, NASDAQ +0.35%. 
THE U.S. PRIVATE SECTOR ADDED A DISMAL 27,000 JOBS in the month of May according to an ADP report substantially less than the estimated 173,000 new jobs.  Employers continue to struggle with sourcing labor, “Labor shortages are impeding job growth, particularly at small companies, and layoffs at bricks-and-mortar retailers are hurting”.  The number of Americans applying for a mortgage increased last week amid mortgage rates falling to 17-month lows.  Underlining data revealed the spike in activity is due to homeowners refinancing not homebuyers, refinances are up 33 percent year-over-year.  ADI proprietary index data showed a net yield increment for high-yield versus high-grade bonds. High-grade edged out high-yield. Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded, Citigroup Inc. (USD) 4.125% 7/25/2028 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for ADI indexes above.) Corey Mahoney (cmahoney@advantagedata.com).
Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   Pacific Gas & Electric Co. 6.05% 3/1/2034 + 1.7%
  HCA Inc. 5.25% 4/15/2025 + 0.1%
-   GameStop Corp. 6.75% 3/15/2021 144A -1.5%
GameStop Corp.   6.75% 3/15/2021 Reg S
California Resources Corp.   8% 12/15/2022 144A
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 0.17% 0.29% -0.56% 1.21% 5.83% 7.34%
Mining 0.37% -1.11% -2.83% -0.41% 6.43% 1.36%
Construction 0.26% 0.03% -0.20% 3.25% 8.27% 6.38%
Manufacturing 0.38% -0.33% -1.23% 0.99% 6.75% 5.18%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas 0.20% 0.26% -0.05% 2.72% 7.97% 7.25%
Wholesale 0.27% -0.14% -0.45% 1.44% 7.41% 5.00%
Retail 0.47% -0.01% -0.68% 4.05% 10.43% 9.38%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate 0.19% -0.12% -0.47% 1.96% 7.67% 7.16%
Services 0.31% -0.09% -0.28% 1.87% 8.06% 7.53%
Public Administration -0.29% -0.39% 0.01% 1.60% 6.84% 11.60%
Energy 0.30% -1.18% -2.83% -0.28% 6.10% 0.78%
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

New Issues Forward Calendar

1. GCI Inc. (USD) 6.625% 6/15/2024 144A (06/04/2019): 325MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 6.625%.

2. GCI Inc. (USD) 6.625% 6/15/2024 Reg S (06/04/2019): 325MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 6.625%.

1. Nexstar Media Group Inc.: Possible new bonds, Expected Q3 2019

2. Diamondback Energy Inc.: High-yield notes, Expected Q2 2019

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 6/5/19 participants welcome a $1250MM new corporate-bond offering by Sirius XM Radio Inc.  The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 5/31/19, with a net outflow of $1.3B, year-to-date $9.8B flowed into high-yield.
Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Rite Aid Corp. (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Hertz Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14)
SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD XR14)
San Miguel Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14)

unnamed - 2019-06-05T084255.682

Loans and Credit Market Overview


Deals recently freed for secondary trading, 
notable secondary activity: 
  • Packers Holdings, Charles Schwab Corp., Tundra Energy Marketing , Louis Dreyfus Corp.
Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:
  • TED spread held below 14 bp (basis points), as of 06/05/19
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds 

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Topics: Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

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