High Yield Bond Research - May 30, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on May 30, 2019 5:30:00 PM
REVISED GDP DATA REVEALED THE ECONOMY GREW SLOWER THAN EXPECTED in the first quarter of 2019 due to reduced business investment and a decline in corporate profits. Consumer spending overall remained stagnant with one exception, spending on durable goods sank 4.6 percent. Pending home sales fell marking the 16th straight month of annual declines as the 30-year mortgage fixed rate mortgage dipped below 4 percent. The 10-year note dipped 5.5 basis points. S&P +0.21%, DOW +0.17%, NASDAQ +0.27%.
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unnamed - 2019-05-28T172139.160


JOBLESS CLAIMS SLIGHTLY TICKED HIGHER last week rising by 3,000 claims remaining near historic 50-year lows proving the resilience of the market.  “The labor market remains very tight, layoff activity is low, and there is no evidence in the economic data that suggests that these conditions will change any time soon”. U.S. trade deficit widened in April due to exports falling faster than imports rose.  Crude oil took a dive on Thursday settling down 2.6 percent or $67.62 per barrel. ADI proprietary index data showed a net yield increment for high-yield versus high-grade bonds. High-grade edged out high-yield. Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded, Kellogg Co. (USD) 4.5% 4/1/2046 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for ADI indexes above.) Corey Mahoney (cmahoney@advantagedata.com).
Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   Marfrig Holding Europe BV 7% 3/15/2024 Reg S + 0.2%
  Pacific Gas & Electric Co. 6.05% 3/1/2034 + 0.5%
-   Icahn Enterprises LP 5.875% 2/1/2022 -0.3%
Teva Pharmaceuticals Fin BV   2.25% 3/18/2020
General Motors Co.   4.875% 10/2/2023
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing -0.19% 0.09% -0.49% 1.23% 6.64% 11.40%
Mining -0.59% -1.32% -2.66% 0.04% 7.00% 2.40%
Construction -0.19% -0.35% -0.36% 2.88% 7.79% 6.00%
Manufacturing -0.32% -0.44% -0.80% 1.50% 7.00% 6.03%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas -0.21% -0.26% -0.36% 2.35% 7.52% 7.38%
Wholesale -0.21% -0.28% -0.40% 1.41% 7.61% 5.34%
Retail -0.30% -0.32% -0.47% 3.51% 10.40% 9.09%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate -0.21% -0.26% -0.23% 2.22% 7.91% 7.26%
Services -0.27% -0.39% -0.30% 1.62% 7.77% 7.42%
Public Administration -0.39% -0.29% 0.64% 1.60% 6.84% 12.93%
Energy -0.56% -1.17% -2.27% 0.64% 7.08% 2.49%
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

New Issues Forward Calendar

1. CNO Financial Group (USD) 5.25% 5/30/2029 (05/30/2019):500MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 5.25%.

1. Nexstar Media Group Inc.: Possible new bonds, Expected Q3 2019

2. Harsco Corp.: Unsecured Debt, Expected Q3 2019

3. General Electric Distributed Power: $600M high-yield bonds, Expected Q2 2019

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 5/28/19 participants welcome a $125MM new corporate-bond offering by Kruger Packaging Hldg LP. The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 5/24/19, with a net inflow of $4MM, year-to-date $11.0B flowed into high-yield.
Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Hertz Corp. (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14)
SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14)
Atmos Energy Corp. (5Y Sen USD MR14)

unnamed - 2019-05-28T172102.935

Loans and Credit Market Overview


Deals recently freed for secondary trading, 
notable secondary activity: 
  • Tundra Energy Marketing , Louis Dreyfus Corp., Service Corp. Intl., Lucid Energy Group LLC
Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  
Positive effects remained in force:
  • TED spread held below 18 bp (basis points), as of 05/30/19
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds 

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Topics: Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

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