TREASURY YIELDS RETREAT AFTER a weaker than expected ISM report indicating a slowdown in the manufacturing industry. The ISM index came in at 47.9, the lowest reading since September 2009 also the second consecutive month of contractions. “There is no end in sight to this slowdown, the recession risk is real.” The 10-year note dipped 2.9 basis points. S&P -1.23%, DOW -1.28, NASDAQ -1.13%
AMERICANS ARE TAKING OUT LONGER TERM AUTO LOANS stretching the affordability of buying a new car. About a third of auto loans originating in the first half of 2019 for new vehicles have terms longer than six years, in 2009 less than 10 percent had the same terms. E-broker Schwab sent shockwaves across the online broker industry after announcing it will eliminate commissions on stocks traded online. Particular TD Ameritrade plummeting 25 percent and E*Trade sinking 17 percent were among the worst hit on the news. ADI proprietary index data showed a net yield increment for high-grade versus high-yield bonds. High-grade edged out high-yield. Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded, Kraft Heinz Co (USD) 4.375% 6/1/2046 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' list (See the chart below for ADI indices above.) Corey Mahoney
| Key Gainers and Losers |
Volume Leaders |
| + |
Petrobras Global Finance BV 6.85% 6/5/2115 |
+ 0.1% |
| |
Science Applications 4.45% 12/1/2020 |
+ 0.4% |
| - |
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 5% PERP |
-0.7% |
|
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries LTD 2.2% 7/21/2021
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 5% PERP
|
| Industry Returns Tracker |
| Industry |
Past Day |
Past Week |
Past Month |
Past Quarter |
YTD |
Past Year |
| Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing |
-0.04% |
0.11% |
0.91% |
1.98% |
14.35% |
13.39% |
| Mining |
-0.52% |
-2.39% |
-0.65% |
-4.00% |
5.01% |
-0.68% |
| Construction |
0.03% |
0.03% |
0.55% |
3.06% |
13.60% |
10.42% |
| Manufacturing |
0.01% |
-0.17% |
0.28% |
1.57% |
10.93% |
7.55% |
| Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas |
0.03% |
-0.07% |
0.52% |
2.28% |
13.26% |
9.14% |
| Wholesale |
-0.04% |
-0.20% |
0.54% |
1.62% |
11.86% |
8.10% |
| Retail |
-0.00% |
-0.10% |
1.06% |
2.08% |
13.76% |
9.71% |
| Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate |
0.02% |
-0.11% |
0.47% |
2.78% |
12.77% |
9.99% |
| Services |
0.02% |
-0.10% |
0.61% |
2.43% |
12.34% |
9.40% |
| Public Administration |
0.02% |
0.22% |
-0.36% |
2.52% |
12.63% |
15.67% |
| Energy |
-0.45% |
-2.06% |
-0.58% |
-3.16% |
6.15% |
0.42% |
| |
| Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted. |
|
| New Issues |
Forward Calendar |
|
1. Photo Hldg Merger Sub, Inc. (USD) 8.5% 10/1/2026 144A (10/01/2019): 785MM First Lien Notes, Price at Issuance 94.371, Yielding 9.62%.
2. Metinvest BV (USD) 7.75% 10/17/2029 144A (10/01/2019): 500MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 98.629, Yielding 7.95%.
|
1. Presidio Inc.: $1.775B high yield bonds, Expected 4th Quarter 2019
2. Alpha Auto Group: $225MM notes, Expected 4th Quarter 2019
|
Additional Commentary
NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 10/01/19 participants welcome a $500M new corporate-bond offering by
Metinvest BV.
The most recent data showed a money flowed out of highyoutflow ETF/mutual funds for the week ended 9/27/2019, with a net outflow of $258 million.
| Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) |
Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS) |
Weatherford International LTD (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Hertz Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14) |
Cable & Wireless Communication (5Y Sen USD CR14)
SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14) |
Loans and Credit Market Overview
SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:
Deals recently freed for secondary trading, notable secondary activity:
- Raytheon Co., Shearer's Foods Inc., Triumph Group Inc., Seagate Technology, B&G Foods Inc.
OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:
Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces. Positive effects remained in force:
- TED spread held below 27 bp (basis points), as of 10/01/19
- Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds
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