High Yield Bond Research - September 6, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Sep 6, 2019 5:16:47 PM
INVESTMENT GRADE BONDS ROSE AGAINST ITS HIGH YIELDING COUNTERPARTS in net prices linked to actual trades. The U.S. adds a dismal 130,000 jobs in August, the smallest increase in three months falling short of ADP’s report of nearly 200,000 jobs. The 10-year note lost 0.2 basis points. S&P+0.23%, DOW +0.39, NASDAQ +0.10%
THE FEDERAL RESERVE QUEUES UP another rate drop this year expected to occur at the next policy meeting September 18th. Fed President Jerome Powell once again assured the Fed will “continue to act appropriately to sustain this expansion” and a recession will not happen. The economy is signaling a different story based on an inverted Treasury yield curve and the ISM manufacturing index dipping below 50. Additionally, Powell stated, “Sometimes things are relatively clear, other times it’s murky out there”, stated Powell. “I think it’s one of those times.”  ADI proprietary index data showed a net yield increment for high-grade versus high-yield bondsHigh-grade edged out high-yield. Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded,  General Motors Co. (USD) 5% 10/1/2028 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' list (See the chart for ADI bonds above.) Corey Mahoney
Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   Pacific Gas & Electric Co. 5.8% 3/1/2037 + 0.2%
  B&G Foods Inc. 5.25% 4/1/2025 + 0.1%
-   Sprint Nextel Corp. 7.875% 9/15/2023 -0.4%
US Steel Corp.   6.875% 8/15/2025
Frontier Communications Corp.   10.5% 9/15/2022
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 0.06% 0.89% 2.17% 7.29% 14.79% 17.46%
Mining 0.25% -0.40% -0.85% -2.61% 4.57% -0.75%
Construction 0.10% 0.15% 1.90% 4.60% 13.01% 10.26%
Manufacturing -0.01% 0.12% 1.49% 3.09% 10.61% 7.75%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas 0.06% 0.06% 1.39% 3.85% 12.26% 9.11%
Wholesale -0.02% 0.14% 0.92% 3.05% 11.47% 7.56%
Retail 0.10% 0.14% 1.36% 3.19% 14.24% 10.96%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate 0.06% 0.20% 1.52% 4.34% 12.49% 10.59%
Services 0.11% 0.17% 1.81% 3.75% 11.94% 9.21%
Public Administration -0.08% 0.12% 1.33% 5.69% 13.05% 17.75%
Energy 0.13% -0.42% -0.30% -1.52% 6.08% 0.58%
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

unnamed - 2019-09-06T171314.162

New Issues Forward Calendar

1. Hill-Rom Holdings Inc. (USD) 4.375% 9/15/2027 Reg S (09/05/2019): 425MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 4.38%.

2. Evergy Inc. (USD) 2.9% 9/15/2029 (09/05/2019): 800MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.827, Yielding 2.92%.

1. General Electric Distributed Power: $600M high-yield bonds, Expected Q3 2019

2. Diamondback Energy Inc.: High-yield notes, Expected Q3 2019

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 09/05/19 participants welcome a $425M new corporate-bond offering by
Hill-Rom Holdings Inc. The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 8/16/19, with a net outflow of  $4.07B.
Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Weatherford International LTD (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Hertz Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14)
Cable & Wireless Communication (5Y Sen USD CR14)
SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14)

unnamed - 2019-08-01T153117.188

Loans and Credit Market Overview


Deals recently freed for secondary trading, 
notable secondary activity: 
  • Murphy Oil USA Inc., Electronic Arts Inc., AutoData, PaySimple Inc., Nike Inc., US Foods Inc.
OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:
  • TED spread held below 15 bp (basis points), as of 09/06/19
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds 

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Topics: Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

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