Investment Grade Bond Research - July 12, 2019

THE YIELD GAP BETWEEN INVESTMENT GRADE and high yield corporate bonds is at its lowest since 2007. Just 60 basis points separate yields of the lowest-rated investment grade debt and the highest-rated high yield debt. As trends among corporate and government debt continue to point to economic downturn, many investors are selling riskier junk bonds. S&P +0.46%, DOW +0.90, NASDAQ +0.59%

IN CORPORATE BOND NEW ISSUANCE, E.W. Scripps Company priced $500 million in senior notesthrough its subsidiary company, Escrow Inc. The notes, which were upsized by $100 million due to strong demand, will yield 5.875% and mature on July 15, 2027. Scripps plans to use the proceeds in part to facilitate the acquisition of 8 television stations, and to repay outstanding debt. ADI proprietary index data showed a net yield increment for high-yield versus high-grade bonds. High-yield edged out high-grade. Among high-yield bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded, Chesapeake Energy Corp. (USD) 7.5% 10/1/2026 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for ADI Indices above.) Andrew Robartes (arobartes@advantagedata.com).

 

Key Gainers and Losers	Volume Leaders
+   Apple Inc. 1.8% 11/13/2019 + 0.1%   IBM Corp. 4.25% 5/15/2049 + 0.8% -   Abbvie Inc. 4.4% 11/6/2042 -0.1%   3M Co. 2.25% 3/15/2023 -0.0%	PepsiCo. Inc.   2% 4/15/2021 CVS Health Corp.   5.05% 3/25/2048

Industry Returns Tracker

Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing -0.01% -0.15% 0.74% 2.43% 6.51% 5.14% Mining -0.27% -0.91% 1.46% 2.92% 8.85% 7.95% Construction -0.26% -0.70% 1.39% 3.52% 6.95% 7.43% Manufacturing -0.23% -0.77% 1.31% 3.31% 7.34% 7.06% Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas -0.35% -1.05% 1.64% 4.18% 9.55% 9.56% Wholesale -0.22% -0.81% 0.87% 3.13% 7.88% 7.39% Retail -0.38% -0.97% 1.46% 3.48% 7.82% 7.95% Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate -0.19% -0.55% 0.82% 2.58% 6.13% 7.18% Services -0.29% -0.87% 1.22% 3.34% 7.41% 8.05% Public Administration -0.29% -0.32% 0.27% 1.80% 3.06% 4.55% Energy -0.27% -0.98% 1.55% 3.01% 9.17% 8.48%   Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

New Issues	New Issues [Continued]
1. Builders FirstSource Inc. (USD) 6.75% 6/1/2027 Reg S (07/11/2019): 75MM Secured Notes, Price at Issuance 104.5, Yielding 6.02%. 2. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (USD) 3.195% 7/18/2029 (07/11/2019): 1750MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 3.2%.

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 7/11/19 participants welcome a $1000MM new corporate-bond offering by Nationwide Building Society.  The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 6/21/19, with a net outflow of $602MM, year-to-date $8.9B flowed into high-yield. 

 

Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS)	Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Hertz Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14) Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14)	SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD XR14) San Miguel Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14)

Loans and Credit Market Overview

SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:

Deals recently freed for secondary trading, notable secondary activity:

• Starwood Property Trust Inc., Heritage Power, LLC, Piaggio & C. SpA, Goshawk Aviation Ltd

OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:

• TED spread held below 17 bp (basis points), as of 07/12/19
• Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds

Copyright 2019 Advantage Data Inc. All Rights Reserved. http://www.advantagedata.com

Information in this document should not be regarded as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy bonds or any financial instruments referred to herein. All information provided in this document is believed to be accurate. However, Advantage Data and its sources make no warranties, either express or implied, as to any matter whatsoever, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Opinions in this document are subject to change without notice. Electronic redistribution, photocopying and any other electronic or mechanical reproduction is strictly prohibited without prior written permission from Advantage Data Inc.