Market Summaries

Investment Grade Bond Research - July 26, 2019

Written by Corey Mahoney | Aug 1, 2019 6:56:33 PM

U.S. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS SURGED BY 2 PERCENT IN JUNE largely due to an increase in civilian aircraft orders. Core capital goods orders rose 1.9 percent on year-over-year basis suggesting the economy is picking up steam after two months of weak data. “The U.S. economy is stronger today because the rest of the world is in a recession. That’s not the way it’s supposed to work, but that’s the way it’s working now. Because the rest of the world is in a recession, our interest rates are scraping bottom. And because our interest rates are scraping bottom, our economy is actually doing pretty darn well,” said Todd Buchholz, former White House director of economic policy under President George H.W. Bush  “Eighty-eight percent of our economy has pretty much nothing at all to do with exports or imports.”

T-MOBILE AND SPRINT RECEIVE APPROVAL from the Department of Justice to continue with the merger of the two companies.  Under the agreement, Sprint will have to divest its Boost Mobile and Virgin Mobile brands to Dish Network Corp.  Subsequent to the agreement T-Mobile will not raise rates for at least three years and will increase 5G coverage to 97 percent of the U.S. population.  ADI proprietary index data showed a net yield increment for high-grade versus high-yield bondsHigh-yield edged out high-grade.  Among high-yield bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded, Sprint Nextel Corp. (USD) 11.5% 11/15/2021 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for Sprint Nextel Corp. below.) Corey Mahoney

Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   Broadcom Corp. 3.875% 1/15/2027 + 0.2%
  Ford Motor Co. 4.346% 12/8/2026 + 0.2%
-   AT&T Inc. FLT% 6/12/2024 -0.0%
Bank of America Corp.   4.33% 3/15/2050
AT&T Inc.   FLT% 6/12/2024
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 0.00% -0.12% -0.37% 2.87% 8.55% 8.67%
Mining -0.11% -0.10% 0.15% 2.99% 9.13% 8.54%
Construction -0.02% -0.12% 0.30% 3.60% 7.45% 8.06%
Manufacturing -0.10% 0.10% 0.37% 3.75% 7.88% 7.64%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas -0.11% 0.10% 0.49% 4.52% 10.06% 10.38%
Wholesale -0.14% 0.07% 0.47% 3.51% 8.80% 8.42%
Retail -0.16% -0.06% 0.21% 3.99% 8.51% 8.69%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate -0.08% -0.02% 0.16% 2.90% 6.61% 7.67%
Services -0.13% -0.02% 0.19% 3.70% 7.66% 8.26%
Public Administration -0.13% -0.23% -0.16% 1.69% 3.20% 5.06%
Energy -0.12% -0.09% 0.18% 3.16% 9.48% 8.97%
 
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

New Issues New Issues [Continued]

1. PepsiCo Inc. (USD) 2.625% 7/29/2029 (07/25/2019): 1000MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.703, Yielding 2.66%.

2. American Express Co. (USD) 2.5% 7/30/2024 (07/25/2019):1500MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.678, Yielding 2.57%.

 

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 7/25/19 participants welcome $1 billion in  new corporate-bond offerings by PepsiCo Inc. The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 7/19/19, with a net inflow of $570MM, six week total $7.4B flowed into high-yield. 
 
Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Rite Aid Corp. (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Hertz Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14)
SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14)
San Miguel Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14)

Loans and Credit Market Overview

SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:

Deals recently freed for secondary trading, notable secondary activity:
  • Nascar Holdings Inc., NGPL Pipeco LLC, Whatabrands LLC, Electricite de France
OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:
  • TED spread held below 16 bp (basis points), as of 07/26/19
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds

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