Investment Grade Bond Research - May 3, 2019

JOBLESSNESS IN THE U.S. has fallen to 3.6%, marking the lowest level since December 1969. This is due in part to a shrinking labor force, but also indicates that the economy remains strong. The Dow Jones recovered well Friday after two days of significant loss, closing up 195 points. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes fell 1.5 basis points. S&P +0.96%, Dow +0.75%, NASDAQ  +1.58%.

TESLA INC. COMPLETED its issuance of  $1.6B in convertible bonds to raise its liquidity. The company also sold about 3.1 million shares of stock, and has seen a nine percent increase in share values since Wednesday. This marks a discernible turnaround for the World's leading procucer of electric vehicles, after experiencing logistical and manufacturing issues. Crude oil prices rebounded Friday after reaching a one-month low yesterday.   ADI proprietary index data showed a net yield increment for high-yield versus high-grade bonds. High-grade edged out high-yield. Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded, Newell Rubbermaid Inc. (USD) 5.375% 4/1/2036 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for Newell Rubbermaid Inc. (USD) 5.375% 4/1/2036 below) Andrew Robartes arobartes@advantagedata.com).

 

Key Gainers and Losers	Volume Leaders
+   TransCanada PipeLines LTD 5.1% 3/15/2049 + 0.7%   Starbucks Corp. 2.45% 6/15/2026 + 0.2% -   Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. 4.8% 11/18/2044 -1.1%	Apple Inc.   2.4% 5/3/2023 GE Capital Intl. Funding Co.   4.418% 11/15/2035

Industry Returns Tracker

Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing -0.65% -0.49% -0.07% 2.78% 4.25% 4.68% Mining -0.32% -0.25% 0.41% 3.00% 5.79% 6.20% Construction -0.15% 0.01% 0.56% 3.33% 4.91% 5.51% Manufacturing -0.25% -0.06% 0.44% 2.51% 4.36% 5.22% Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas -0.28% -0.13% 0.62% 3.64% 5.68% 7.43% Wholesale -0.16% 0.02% 0.56% 3.00% 4.93% 5.49% Retail -0.27% -0.07% 0.34% 2.54% 4.36% 5.73% Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate -0.19% -0.02% 0.36% 2.25% 3.88% 5.68% Services -0.26% -0.11% 0.20% 2.26% 4.08% 6.10% Public Administration -0.12% -0.09% 0.22% 1.28% 1.38% 3.83% Energy -0.33% -0.25% 0.44% 3.24% 6.13% 8.03%   Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

New Issues	New Issues [Continued]
1. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (USD) 3% 5/9/2025 (05/02/2019):95MM Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 3%. 2. EG Global Finance PLC (USD) 6.75% 2/7/2025 144A (05/02/2019):750MM First Lien Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 6.75%.

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 5/03/19 participants welcome a $125MM new corporate-bond offering by
Pacific Premier Bancorp Inc.  The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 4/26/19, with a net outflow of $0.520B, year-to-date $13.8B flowed into high-yield.

 

Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS)	Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Weatherford International LTD (5Y Sen USD XR14) Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14)	SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD XR14) Atmos Energy Corp. (5Y Sen USD MR14)

Loans and Credit Market Overview

SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:

Deals recently freed for secondary trading, notable secondary activity:

• Lonsdale Finance Pty LTD, iHeartCommunications Inc., Flexera Software Inc., JBS USA LLC, Sundyne US Purchaser

OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:
Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:

• TED spread held below 15 bp (basis points), as of 05/03/19
• Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds

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