European Bond Research - May 13, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on May 13, 2019 12:15:31 PM
RISK-OFF SENTIMENT PREVAILED ON MONDAY IN EUROPEAN MARKETS as trade tensions intensified over the weekend after China announced an increase in tariffs to 25 percent for goods exported to the US. France’s economy is expected to expand at a consistent rate in the second quarter of 2019 with GDP forecasted to grow 0.3 percent. The 10-year Gilt rose 3.6 basis points. FTSE 100 -0.48%, German DAX -1.30%, CAC 40 -1.20%, STOXX Europe 600 -1.13%.

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THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION SLAMMED ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV, the world’s largest brewer with a 200 million euro antitrust fine subsequent to a three year investigation.  The brewer prevented cheaper beer imports into Belgium from the Netherlands by limiting sales volume and removing mandatory label information.  Britain’s Labour party affirms higher wages for those under the age of 18, doubling it to 10 pounds an hour.  Jeremy Corbyn the party leader expressed, “It’s time to end this discrimination. Young people’s work should be properly valued, not exploited by employers to cut their wage bill. If they’re doing the job, pay them the wage - the real living wage” ADI (Advantage Data Inc.) extensive corporate-bond index data showed a net daily yield increment for high-grade versus high-yield constituents. High-grade bonds edged out high-yield debt as of 3 PM, London time.  Among European high-grade bonds showing a concurrence of top price gains at appreciable volumes traded,  Deutsche Bank AG (USD) 4.5% 4/1/2025 made some analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for Deutsche Bank AG bonds below). Corey Mahoney (

Sovereign-Debt Snapshot

Country Maturity (Y) Yield (%) Previous (%) Spread (bp)
Australia 10 1.740 1.725 -71.7  
Belgium  10 0.437 0.438 -201.9  
France  10 0.345 0.347 -211.2  
Germany  10 -0.042 -0.047 -249.8  
Italy  10 2.690 2.676   23.4
Japan  10 -0.045 -0.046 -250.2  
Netherlands  10 0.142 0.142 -231.4  
Portugal  10 1.115 1.113 -134.1  
Spain  10 0.978 0.983 -147.8  
Sweden  10 0.069 0.067 -238.8  
U.K.  10 1.138 1.126 -131.9  
U.S.  10 2.457 2.445 ...

Credit-Default Swap Market

LATEST NEWS: Top moves, sovereign tighteners (5Y): UK 28 bp and France28 bp. Sovereign wideners (5Y): Germany 11 bp and Spain 55 bp.

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New Issuance

New Issues New Issues [Continued]

1. European Investment Bank (PLN) 2.875% 11/15/2029 (05/13/2019): 1000MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.396, Yielding 2.94%.


ADI Indexes

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iShares Core EUR UCITS iShares Euro High Yield UCITS
NAV as of 05/13/2019, 131.47 NAV as of 05/13/2019, 102.83
Daily NAV Change (%) -0.11% Daily NAV Change (%) -0.25%

The euro-zone economy shows signs of positive momentum, although conditions are expected to deteriorate hindered by the termination of quantitative easing, weakening credit rating quality, and uncertainty regarding the outcome of Brexit. Closely watched indicators and rates:
  • Eurostat's unemployment rate: currently 7.7% (seasonally adjusted, March 2019)
  • Eurostat's quarterly GDP: 0.4% (2019 Q1 Preliminary)
  • 6-month Euribor: current value -0.231%, as of 05/10/2019

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Topics: Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, corporate bonds, market analytics, New Issues, News, research, EU, market update, European

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