European Bond Research - June 3, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Jun 3, 2019 12:21:22 PM
THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION IS PROBING AN ANTITRUST CASE where Spotify claims Apple’s 30 percent App Store fee is unfair and the restriction on third-party developers from communicating with customers is unnecessary. Three years ago European Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager demanded Apple repay 13 billion euros to Ireland following an illegal tax incentive deal. The 10-year Gilt declined 2.5 basis points. FTSE 100 +0.30%, German DAX +0.42%, CAC 40 +0.52%, STOXX Europe 600 +0.30%.

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MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY CONTRACTED GLOBALLY in the month of May amid escalating global trade tensions and Britain’s delayed exit out of the European Union.  The UK experienced a sharp decline in PMI, the index fell to 49.4 from 53.1.  “New order inflows declined from both domestic and overseas markets, as already high stock levels at manufacturers and their clients led to difficulties in sustaining output levels and getting agreement on new contracts.”  Conditions in the private sector remained weak and the Bank of England forecasts second-quarter growth to further deteriorate.  ADI (Advantage Data Inc.) extensive corporate-bond index data showed a net daily yield increment for high-grade versus high-yield constituents. High-grade bonds edged out high-yield debt as of 3 PM, London time.  Among European high-grade bonds showing a concurrence of top price gains at appreciable volumes traded, AerCap Ireland Capital LTD (USD) 3.3% 1/23/2023 made some analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for AerCap Ireland Capital LTD bonds below). Corey Mahoney (

Sovereign-Debt Snapshot

Country Maturity (Y) Yield (%) Previous (%) Spread (bp)
Australia 10 1.468 1.543 -67.4  
Belgium  10 0.287 0.320 -185.4  
France  10 0.211 0.242 -193.0  
Germany  10 -0.200 -0.171 -234.1  
Italy  10 2.658 2.651   51.7
Japan  10 -0.097 -0.081 -223.8  
Netherlands  10 -0.008 0.022 -214.9  
Portugal  10 0.808 0.862 -133.3  
Spain  10 0.709 0.765 -143.2  
Sweden  10 -0.031 0.005 -217.2  
U.K.  10 0.888 0.901 -125.3  
U.S.  10 2.141 2.218 ...

Credit-Default Swap Market

LATEST NEWS: Top moves, sovereign tighteners (5Y): Ireland 31 bp and France 30 bp. Sovereign wideners (5Y): Denmark 11 bp and Korea 37 bp.

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New Issuance

New Issues New Issues [Continued]

(None Current 06/03/2019)



ADI Indexes

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iShares Core EUR UCITS iShares Euro High Yield UCITS
NAV as of 06/03/2019, 131.61 NAV as of 06/03/2019, 102.43
Daily NAV Change (%) -0.05%  Daily NAV Change (%) -0.16%

The euro-zone economy shows signs of positive momentum, although conditions are expected to deteriorate hindered by the termination of quantitative easing, weakening credit rating quality, and uncertainty regarding the outcome of Brexit. Closely watched indicators and rates:
  • Eurostat's unemployment rate: currently 7.7% (seasonally adjusted, March 2019)
  • Eurostat's quarterly GDP: 0.4% (2019 Q1 Preliminary)
  • 6-month Euribor: current value -0.250%, as of 06/03/2019

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Topics: Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, corporate bonds, market analytics, New Issues, News, research, EU, market update, European

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