US TREASURY YIELDS SPIKE AS INVESTORS BECOME OPTIMISTIC a trade deal with China is likely to occur following the G20 summit in Japan. The trade spat is blamed for initiating a global growth slowdown and the Fed’s recent dovish tone suggesting aggressive rate cuts. The 10-year note spiked 5.7 basis points. S&P -0.01%, DOW +0.08, NASDAQ +0.41%.
DURABLE GOODS ORDERS DECLINED 1.3 PERCENT IN MAY largely due to a significant drop in transportation orders. Stripping out cars and planes from the
report orders ticked 0.3 percent higher,
orders for commercial aircraft plummeted 28 percent alone hindered by Boeing. In light of the drop
business investment advanced 0.4 percent supported by an increase in demand for electronic products and machinery. A critical
US East Coast refinery plans to permanently go offline following a significant fire sending
crude oil 2.46 percent higher. In addition,
supplies slipped by 12.8 million barrels week-over-week. Analysts expect to supplies to further shrink, "
It's our expectation that we continue to see draws into the second half of the year." ADI proprietary index data showed a net
yield increment for high-yield versus high-grade bonds.
High-yield edged out high-grade. Among high-yield bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded,
QVC Inc. (USD) 4.85% 4/1/2024 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for
ADI indexes above.)
Corey Mahoney (
cmahoney@advantagedata.com).
| Key Gainers and Losers |
Volume Leaders |
| + |
HSBC Hldg PLC FLT% 5/18/2024 |
+ 0.1% |
| |
CVS Health Corp. 4.1% 3/25/2025 |
+ 0.1% |
| - |
Vodafone Group PLC 3.75% 1/16/2024 |
-0.6% |
|
Citibank NA 2.1% 6/12/2020
Dowdupont Inc. 4.493% 11/15/2025
|
| Industry Returns Tracker |
| Industry |
Past Day |
Past Week |
Past Month |
Past Quarter |
YTD |
Past Year |
| Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing |
0.10% |
0.49% |
2.58% |
4.16% |
8.48% |
5.34% |
| Mining |
0.04% |
1.16% |
2.42% |
3.48% |
8.93% |
9.15% |
| Construction |
0.17% |
0.90% |
2.61% |
3.60% |
7.22% |
7.80% |
| Manufacturing |
0.02% |
0.77% |
2.62% |
3.72% |
7.53% |
8.00% |
| Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas |
0.08% |
0.96% |
3.04% |
4.60% |
9.40% |
10.46% |
| Wholesale |
0.04% |
0.74% |
2.11% |
3.52% |
8.24% |
8.27% |
| Retail |
0.05% |
0.92% |
2.84% |
3.71% |
7.88% |
9.08% |
| Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate |
0.06% |
0.57% |
1.89% |
2.99% |
6.46% |
7.89% |
| Services |
0.01% |
0.80% |
2.71% |
3.73% |
7.48% |
8.92% |
| Public Administration |
0.07% |
0.44% |
1.21% |
1.91% |
3.34% |
4.92% |
| Energy |
0.01% |
1.15% |
2.42% |
3.56% |
9.29% |
9.88% |
| |
| Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted. |
|
| New Issues |
New Issues [Continued] |
|
1. Charter Communications Operating LLC (USD) 5.125% 7/1/2049 (06/25/2019): 1250MM First Lien Notes, Price at Issuance 99.88, Yielding 5.13%.
2. Toyota Motor Corp. (USD) 2.76% 7/2/2029 (06/25/2019): 500MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 100, Yielding 2.76%.
|
|
Additional Commentary
NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 6/26/19 participants welcome a $350MM new corporate-bond offering by AIG Global Funding. The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 6/21/19, with a net outflow of $602MM, year-to-date $8.9B flowed into high-yield.
| Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) |
Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS) |
Rite Aid Corp. (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Weatherford International LTD (5Y Sen USD MR14) |
Cable & Wireless Communication (5Y Sen USD CR14)
SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14) |
Loans and Credit Market Overview
SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:
Deals recently freed for secondary trading, notable secondary activity:
- Moneygram Intl. Inc., Vici Properties LLC, Vidrala SA, Hilton Worldwide Finance LLC
OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces. Positive effects remained in force:
- TED spread held below 19 bp (basis points), as of 06/26/19
- Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds
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