Investment Grade Bond Research - October 1, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Oct 1, 2019 5:30:47 PM

TREASURY YIELDS RETREAT AFTER a weaker than expected ISM report indicating a slowdown in the manufacturing industry. The ISM index came in at 47.9, the lowest reading since September 2009 also the second consecutive month of contractions. “There is no end in sight to this slowdown, the recession risk is real.” The 10-year note dipped 2.9 basis points. S&P -1.23%, DOW -1.28, NASDAQ -1.13%

AMERICANS ARE TAKING OUT LONGER TERM AUTO LOANS stretching the affordability of buying a new car. About a third of auto loans originating in the first half of 2019 for new vehicles have terms longer than six years, in 2009 less than 10 percent had the same terms.  E-broker Schwab sent shockwaves across the online broker industry after announcing it will eliminate commissions on stocks traded online. Particular TD Ameritrade plummeting 25 percent and E*Trade sinking 17 percent were among the worst hit on the news. ADI proprietary index data showed a net yield increment for high-grade versus high-yield bondsHigh-grade edged out high-yield. Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded,  Kraft Heinz Co (USD) 4.375% 6/1/2046 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' list (See the chart above for Kraft Heinz Co. bonds above.) Corey Mahoney
Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   Altria Group Inc. 4.8% 2/14/2029 + 0.0%
  Comcast Corp. 4.15% 10/15/2028 + 0.2%
-   Wal-Mart Stores Inc. 3.625% 12/15/2047 -0.1%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.   2.35% 11/15/2021
Bank of Nova Scotia   4.5% 12/16/2025
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 0.09% 0.37% 0.51% 1.05% 5.64% 6.30%
Mining 0.06% -0.11% -0.28% 2.76% 12.38% 11.39%
Construction 0.05% 0.26% -0.50% 2.85% 10.22% 10.29%
Manufacturing 0.05% 0.13% -0.42% 3.07% 10.81% 10.41%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas 0.09% 0.12% -0.80% 3.93% 14.11% 13.60%
Wholesale 0.03% 0.12% -0.13% 3.04% 12.38% 10.91%
Retail 0.04% 0.14% -0.48% 3.52% 12.15% 11.89%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate 0.04% 0.11% -0.29% 2.33% 9.36% 9.82%
Services 0.06% 0.17% -0.50% 2.92% 10.54% 11.07%
Public Administration 0.01% 0.20% -0.08% 1.29% 4.76% 6.80%
Energy 0.03% -0.15% -0.37% 2.71% 12.71% 11.24%
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.

unnamed - 2019-10-01T172343.334

New Issues New Issues [Continued]

1. Global Atlantic Fin (USD) 4.4% 10/15/2029 144A (09/30/2019): 500MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.83, Yielding 4.42%.

2. Diageo Capital PLC (USD) 2.375% 10/24/2029 (09/30/2019): 1000MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.096, Yielding 2.48%.


Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 10/01/19 participants welcome a $425M new corporate-bond offering by
Owl Rock Capital Corp. The most recent data showed a money flowed out of highyoutflow ETF/mutual funds for the week ended 9/27/2019, with a net outflow of $258 million.
Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Rite Aid Corp. (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Weatherford International LTD (5Y Sen USD MR14)
SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD XR14)
San Miguel Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14)

unnamed - 2019-09-09T165404.526

Loans and Credit Market Overview


Deals recently freed for secondary trading, notable secondary activity:
  • Raytheon Co., Shearer's Foods Inc., Triumph Group Inc., Seagate Technology, B&G Foods Inc.
OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:
  • TED spread held below 27 bp (basis points), as of 10/01/19
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds

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Topics: High Yield, Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, Finance, Fixed Income, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

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