SENTIMENT SHIFTED BACK TO THE RISK-AVERSE, as political risk flared further in Spain on the heels of a violent independence vote in Catalonia. With
further Spanish political turmoil expected
in the coming weeks, along with the populist bent shown in Angela Merkel's recent election victory, investors chose to assume a
'wait-and-see' mode today, taking profits after yesterday's defiant risk-taking. The defensive market tone was further exacerbated by numbers showing an
unexpected pullback in the U.K.'s construction sector. Nonetheless a 3.7% rise in construction materials firm
Ferguson PLC's shares buoyed the pan-European
Stoxx 600, while Spanish banks
CaixaBank SA and
Banco Santander SA rebounded from yesterday's pullback on Catalonia news.
Michael F. Brown
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European Bond Research as of September 29, 2017
Posted by
Michael F. Brown on Sep 29, 2017 1:07:25 PM
CAUTION KEPT PRICES IN A THIN CHANNEL
for both high-yield and investment-grade bonds in Europe, headed into the weekend.
E
xtended strength in financials was seen today, lifting the pan-European
Stoxx 600
index;
Deutsche Bank AG,
Commerzbank AG, and
Societe Generale
shares all posted gains, reaffirming an upside trend seen for most of the week. Meanwhile an extended weak euro helped export-sensitive groups, although today the
carmaker sector took a hit, following
Volkswagen AG
stock lower by 0.4% at one point, as
Porsche AS AG
also fluctuated south.
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LESS ACUTE NUCLEAR SABRE-RATTLING by the U.S. and N. Korea underpinned a continued move off safe-haven bids, conferring
slight favor for European junk bonds. News indicating Kim Jong has backed off imminent threats to Guam extended yesterday's 'relief rally' in risk assets. Strong U.S. retail data was a component of a pickup in risk-on sentiment in Europe; gains in
Danone SA and
Aberdeen Asset Management shares were offset by pullbacks in
Hargreaves Lansdown PLC and
K+S AG, lending sector cues to corporate-bond traders.
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SAFE-HAVEN BIDS ESCALATED, keeping European investment-grade bonds favored for much of the trading day. The higher-quality, lower-risk tiers of corporate debt easily outpaced junk bonds in net price gains linked to actual trades.
Acute attention to global geopolitical and terrorism risk, stemming from U.S.-North Korean war rhetoric and an apparent terrorist act outside Paris, kept investors in a defensive state of mind. Gains in
Scout 24 AG and
Novo Nordisk A/S shares lifted
Stoxx 600 equities initially, although the index remained mired in the red into afternoon London time.
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HIGH-YIELD BONDS REGAINED CLEAR-CUT FAVOR over their less-risky investment-grade counterparts, outpacing them in net price gains linked to trades. The move was underpinned in part by
upbeat GDP growth data for Europe in the second quarter, in part by numbers showing a welcome
return to profit by oil heavyweight BP PLC amid higher crude-oil prices. Corporate-bond traders took additional sector cues from a 10.7% gain in
Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC shares, while Dutch chemical and pharma firm
Royal DSM NV climbed 5.8%. Despite the previous trading sessions' gain in the materials group on stronger Chinese construction data, precious metal miner
Fresnillo PLC pulled back 2.6%.
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