Investment Grade Bond Research - May 6, 2019

Posted by Andrew Robartes on May 6, 2019 5:20:48 PM

U.S. STOCKS DROPPED MONDAY morning amid trade tensions with China. By mid-afternoon, most of the losses had been recovered, despite being down close to 500 points earlier in the day. Industrial and tech companies with exposure to China fared the worst, as shown by a 0.5% decline in the NASDAQ. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes fell 2.5 basis points.S&P-0.45%,Dow-0.25%,NASDAQ -0.50%.

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Topics: High Yield, Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, Finance, Fixed Income, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

Investment Grade Bond Research - May 3, 2019

Posted by Andrew Robartes on May 3, 2019 5:20:59 PM

JOBLESSNESS IN THE U.S. has fallen to 3.6%, marking the lowest level since December 1969. This is due in part to a shrinking labor force, but also indicates that the economy remains strong. The Dow Jones recovered well Friday after two days of significant loss, closing up 195 points. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes fell 1.5 basis points. S&P +0.96%, Dow +0.75%, NASDAQ  +1.58%.

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Topics: High Yield, Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, Finance, Fixed Income, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

Investment Grade Bond Research - May 2, 2019

Posted by Andrew Robartes on May 2, 2019 5:33:41 PM

The Dow Jones continued to fall Thursday, dropping 122.35 points as the Federal Reserve refused to lower interest rates. Worker productivity in the U.S. is advancing at the fastest rate since 2010. Additionally, 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose 3.6 basis points. S&P -0.21%, Dow -0.46%, NASDAQ  -0.16%.

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Topics: High Yield, Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, Finance, Fixed Income, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

Investment Grade Bond Research - May 1, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on May 1, 2019 5:20:51 PM

RISK TAKING WAS SCALED BACK AS INVESTMENT-GRADE DEBT ROSE against its high-yield counterpart in net prices linked to actual trades. The Federal Reserve held interest rates at their current levels following the meeting on Wednesday. Jerome Powell stated softening inflation is likely to be “transient,” but if easing inflation persists it is “something we would be concerned about.” The 10-year note gained 0.7 basis points. S&P -0.57%, DOW -0.44%, NASDAQ -0.32%.

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Topics: High Yield, Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, Finance, Fixed Income, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

Investment Grade Bond Research - April 30, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Apr 30, 2019 5:31:47 PM

HIGH-YIELD DEBT RETAINED AN EDGE AGAINST INVESTMENT GRADE BONDS in net prices linked to actual trades. Muted signs of inflation have agitated bond investors to be the most bullish on longer-dated U.S. Treasuries since 2016. The Fed’s preferred method of evaluating inflation, the rate of Personal consumption expenditure increased by 1.7 percent on a year-over-year basis. The 10-year note lost 2.3 basis points. S&P -0.01%, DOW +0.08%, NASDAQ -0.75%.

 
PENDING HOME SALES CLIMBED 3.8 PERCENT IN MARCH surpassing estimates of 0.7 percent rising to an eight-month high.   G-component   Alphabet  of the   FAANG  group   tumbled 8 percent  after reporting disappointing sales growth   erasing $60 billion off its market cap.  Ad revenue dipped nearly 5 percent quarter-over-quarter and only grew 15 percent year-over-year.   People are definitely taking some profits off names like Apple, Google. There could be a little ‘peaking’ mentality here considering how indexes are at record levels”.  ADI proprietary index data showed a net  yield increment for high-yield versus high-grade bonds.   High-yield edged out high-grade. Among high-yield bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded,    Transocean Inc. (USD) 9% 7/15/2023 144A  made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for    ADI Indexes above)  Corey Mahoney  cmahoney@advantagedata.com).
 
Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   Comcast Corp. 4.15% 10/15/2028 + 0.1%
  CVS Health Corp. 4.1% 3/25/2025 + 0.2%
-   Ford Motor Co. 4.75% 1/15/2043 -0.1%
Home Depot Inc.   3.75% 2/15/2024
GE Capital Intl. Funding Co.   4.418% 11/15/2035
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing -0.02% 0.34% 0.43% 3.95% 4.89% 4.68%
Mining -0.16% 0.22% 0.32% 3.89% 6.00% 6.10%
Construction -0.12% 0.34% 0.39% 3.38% 3.82% 5.23%
Manufacturing -0.17% 0.35% 0.21% 3.19% 4.44% 5.11%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas -0.16% 0.34% 0.32% 4.36% 5.64% 6.64%
Wholesale -0.14% 0.31% 0.38% 3.56% 5.22% 5.40%
Retail -0.14% 0.30% 0.02% 3.08% 4.33% 5.54%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate -0.09% 0.30% 0.22% 2.73% 3.84% 5.55%
Services -0.17% 0.34% -0.02% 2.87% 4.10% 5.87%
Public Administration -0.05% 0.17% 0.08% 1.04% 1.13% 3.54%
Energy -0.17% 0.27% 0.24% 4.11% 6.18% 6.49%
 
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.
New Issues New Issues [Continued]

1. Lear Corp. (USD) 4.25% 5/15/2029 (04/29/2019): 375MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.691, Yielding 4.29%.

2. Norfolk Southern Corp. (USD) 4.1% 5/15/2049 (04/29/2019):400MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.264, Yielding 4.14%.

 

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 4/30/19 participants welcome a $300MM new corporate-bond offering by
Textron Inc.   The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 4/26/19, with a net outflow of $0.520B, year-to-date $13.8B flowed into high-yield.
 
Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Weatherford International LTD (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Hertz Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14)
SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14)
Atmos Energy Corp. (5Y Sen USD MR14)

Loans and Credit Market Overview

SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:

Deals recently freed for secondary trading, notable secondary activity:
  • JBS USA LLC, Sundyne US Purchaser, Prysmian, Project Maple II BV, Trade Me Group LTD
OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:
Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  
Positive effects remained in force:
  • TED spread held below 17 bp (basis points), as of 04/30/19
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds

Copyright 2019 Advantage Data Inc. All Rights Reserved. http://www.advantagedata.com

Information in this document should not be regarded as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy bonds or any financial instruments referred to herein. All information provided in this document is believed to be accurate. However, Advantage Data and its sources make no warranties, either express or implied, as to any matter whatsoever, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Opinions in this document are subject to change without notice. Electronic redistribution, photocopying and any other electronic or mechanical reproduction is strictly prohibited without prior written permission from Advantage Data Inc.

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Topics: High Yield, Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, Finance, Fixed Income, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

Investment Grade Bond Research - April 29, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Apr 29, 2019 5:11:11 PM

JUNK BONDS ROSE AGAINST INVESTMENT GRADE DEBT as investors anticipate a sound jobs report showing growth despite the rocky start to 2019. Gold edged lower as positive Chinese economic data revealed industrial firms reported a rise in profits for the first time in four months.The S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at record highs lifted by more positive earnings.The 10-year note rose 2.6 basis points. S&P +0.11%, DOW +0.04%, NASDAQ +0.19%.

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Topics: High Yield, Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, Finance, Fixed Income, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

Investment Grade Bond Research - April 26, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Apr 26, 2019 5:25:00 PM

US ECONOMY GROWS BY 3.2% IN FIRST QUARTER, beating expectations. Retailers boosted strong sales gains in March, contributing to the pickup in consumer spending; contrary there was a slowdown in spending on services as well as automobiles. Residential construction fell at a 2.8 percent rate, making it the fifth straight quarterly decline.

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Topics: High Yield, Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, Finance, Fixed Income, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

Investment Grade Bond Research - April 25, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Apr 25, 2019 5:25:07 PM

JOBLESS CLAIMS SPIKE by 37,000 soaring past 200,000 hitting a two-and-half month high, economists attribute the Easter, Passover and spring break for the rise. Despite the uptick, in unemployment applications, the economy remains sound. “Company CEOs may have feared recession in surveys taken at the start of the year, but those concerns have faded” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. The 10-year note rose 0.8 basis points. S&P+0.13%, DOW-0.32%,NASDAQ+0.37%.

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Topics: High Yield, Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, Finance, Fixed Income, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

Investment Grade Bond Research - April 24, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Apr 24, 2019 5:02:41 PM

INVESTMENT-GRADE DEBT EDGED OUT JUNK BONDS in net prices linked to actual trades as investors purchase safe-haven assets. Treasury yields dip on soft global economic data stirring up anxiety among investors. The spread between the two and10-year widened to 21.5 basis points. The 10-year note sank 5.0 basis points. S&P-0.03%,DOW-0.10%,NASDAQ-0.02%.

 
U.S.   MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS DECLINE to post their largest drop in four months as mortgage rates increased to one-month highs.    “The strong economy and job market (are) keeping buyer interest high, but rising mortgage rates could add pressure to the budgets of some would-be buyers,”  MBA’s chief economist Mike Fratantoni said in a statement.  June   delivery of crude declined 0.77 percent  following a report U.S. crude   supplies rose by 6.9 million barrels  last week; In addition,   gasoline inventories rose by 2.2 million barrels.  Domestic   crude inventories hit an 18-month high settling  lower at $74.37 per barrel. “ Overall the report was considered bearish,”  said Kyle Cooper, a consultant at ION Energy.  ADI proprietary index data showed a net  yield increment for high-yield versus high-grade bonds.   High-grade edged out high-yield. Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded,    Kraft Heinz Co (USD) 5.2% 7/15/2045 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for    Kraft Heinz Co bonds below)  Corey Mahoney  cmahoney@advantagedata.com).
 
Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   Apple Inc. 2.4% 5/3/2023 + 0.0%
  Deutsche Bank AG 3.375% 5/12/2021 (1) + 0.6%
-   Occidental Petroleum Corp. 4.2% 3/15/2048 -0.1%
Apple Inc.   2.4% 5/3/2023
GE Capital Intl. Funding Co.   3.373% 11/15/2025
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing -0.28% -0.20% 0.15% 3.71% 4.23% 4.63%
Mining -0.02% 0.00% 0.70% 4.18% 5.93% 5.66%
Construction 0.04% 0.21% 0.49% 3.56% 4.21% 5.01%
Manufacturing 0.05% 0.02% 0.33% 3.32% 4.07% 4.74%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas 0.04% 0.15% 0.66% 4.52% 5.45% 6.31%
Wholesale 0.05% 0.07% 0.42% 3.72% 4.90% 4.90%
Retail 0.05% -0.01% 0.21% 3.48% 4.18% 5.21%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate 0.09% 0.13% 0.35% 3.07% 3.77% 5.40%
Services 0.08% -0.08% 0.13% 2.94% 3.82% 5.59%
Public Administration 0.04% 0.12% 0.04% 1.14% 1.08% 3.76%
Energy -0.01% -0.03% 0.61% 4.32% 5.96% 6.15%
 
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.
New Issues New Issues [Continued]

1. Kimberly-Clark Corp. (USD) 3.2% 4/25/2029 (04/23/2019): 700MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.83, Yielding 3.22%.

2. Rogers Communications Inc. (CAD) 3.25% 5/1/2029 (04/23/2019):1000MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.746, Yielding 3.28%.

3. JBS USA LLC (USD) 5.875% 7/15/2024 (04/24/2019): 150MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 101.75, Yielding 5.48%.

 

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 4/23/19 participants welcome a $700MM new corporate-bond offering by
Kimberly-Clark Corp.   The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 4/18/19, with a net inflow of $1.1B, year-to-date $14.4B flowed into high-yield.
 
Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Rite Aid Corp. (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Hertz Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14)
Cable & Wireless Communication (5Y Sen USD CR14)
Atmos Energy Corp. (5Y Sen USD MR14)

Loans and Credit Market Overview

SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:

Deals recently freed for secondary trading, notable secondary activity:
  • Prysmian, Project Maple II BV, Trade Me Group LTD, Jane Street, Six Flags Inc.
OVERALL CREDIT MARKET:
Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  
Positive effects remained in force:
  • TED spread held below 15 bp (basis points), as of 04/24/19
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds

Copyright 2019 Advantage Data Inc. All Rights Reserved. http://www.advantagedata.com

Information in this document should not be regarded as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy bonds or any financial instruments referred to herein. All information provided in this document is believed to be accurate. However, Advantage Data and its sources make no warranties, either express or implied, as to any matter whatsoever, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Opinions in this document are subject to change without notice. Electronic redistribution, photocopying and any other electronic or mechanical reproduction is strictly prohibited without prior written permission from Advantage Data Inc.

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Topics: High Yield, Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, Finance, Fixed Income, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update

Investment Grade Bond Research - April 23, 2019

Posted by Corey Mahoney on Apr 23, 2019 5:02:42 PM

U.S. TREASURY YIELDS ACROSS the board settled lower following the sale of $40 billion of 2-year notes; the 2-year note sank 4.6 basis points and 10-year note dipped 2.2 basis points.  S&P and NASDAQ surged past record highs on Tuesday on upbeat earnings relieving anxiety on a gloomy earnings season.  S&P +0.88%, DOW +0.55%, NASDAQ +1.32%

 
NETFLIX WILL BE OFFERING $2 BILLION  in senior unsecured debt rated   Ba3 by Moody’s, three tiers below investment grade given the online media provider is   7.5x levered.  Subsequently Netflix ( NFLX) fell in premarket trading but quickly recovering   rallying 1.9 percent during mid-day trading.  Moody’s remains optimistic on Netflix’s long-term strategy,   “Despite the continuing issuances of debt to fund the company’s negative cash flows, we expect leverage to drop gradually over time with subscriber growth”.  New home sales flirt with a   one and a half year high, rising for the third consecutive month aided by lower mortgage rates and a cooling market.  The median   price of a new construction declined   9.7 percent  in March year over year.   ADI proprietary index data showed a net  yield increment for high-yield versus high-grade bonds.   High-grade edged out high-yield. Among high-grade bonds showing topmost price gains at appreciable volumes traded,    Gulf Power Co. (USD) 4.55% 10/1/2044 made analysts' 'Conviction Buy' lists. (See the chart for    Netflix bonds below)  Corey Mahoney  cmahoney@advantagedata.com).
 
Key Gainers and Losers Volume Leaders
+   CVS Health Corp. 5.05% 3/25/2048 + 0.4%
  Comcast Corp. 4.15% 10/15/2028 + 0.4%
-   Lockheed Martin Corp. 3.35% 9/15/2021 -0.6%
Molson Coors Brewing Co.   2.25% 3/15/2020
Celgene Corp.   3.875% 8/15/2025
Industry Returns Tracker
Industry Past Day Past Week Past Month Past Quarter YTD Past Year
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing -0.10% -0.25% 0.41% 4.05% 4.49% 4.63%
Mining -0.06% -0.18% 0.73% 4.38% 5.94% 5.56%
Construction -0.02% 0.06% 0.51% 3.54% 3.99% 4.75%
Manufacturing -0.10% -0.18% 0.33% 3.52% 4.14% 4.56%
Transportion, Communication, Electric/Gas -0.09% -0.06% 0.53% 4.46% 5.14% 6.01%
Wholesale -0.04% -0.06% 0.40% 3.64% 4.53% 4.55%
Retail -0.09% -0.20% 0.21% 3.49% 4.08% 4.92%
Finance, Insurance, Real-Estate -0.05% -0.09% 0.27% 3.10% 3.68% 5.17%
Services -0.09% -0.23% 0.12% 3.03% 3.74% 5.36%
Public Administration -0.02% 0.02% 0.01% 1.14% 1.03% 3.64%
Energy -0.08% -0.28% 0.62% 4.60% 6.04% 6.02%
 
Total returns (non-annualized) by rating, market weighted.
New Issues New Issues [Continued]

1. Kimberly-Clark Corp. (USD) 3.2% 4/25/2029 (04/23/2019): 700MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.83, Yielding 3.22%.

2. Rogers Communications Inc. (USD) 4.35% 5/1/2049 (04/23/2019):1250MM Senior Unsecured Notes, Price at Issuance 99.667, Yielding 4.37%.

 

Additional Commentary

NEW ISSUANCE WATCH: on 4/23/19 participants welcome a $700MM new corporate-bond offering by
Kimberly-Clark Corp.   The most recent data showed money flowed out of high-yield ETFs/mutual funds for the week ended 4/18/19, with a net inflow of $1.1B, year-to-date $14.4B flowed into high-yield.
 
Top Widening Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Top Narrowing Credit Default Swaps (CDS)
Weatherford International LTD (5Y Sen USD XR14)
Hertz Corp. (5Y Sen USD CR14)
SuperValu Inc. (5Y Sen USD MR14)
Atmos Energy Corp. (5Y Sen USD MR14)
Loans and Credit Market Overview
SYNDICATED LOANS HIGHLIGHTS:

Deals recently freed for secondary trading, notable secondary activity:
  • Prysmian, Project Maple II BV, Trade Me Group LTD, Jane Street, Six Flags Inc.
Long-term bond yields are expected to hit a cyclical peak in 2019 given tight fiscal policy and lagging global economies. Europe remains checked by stubbornly low inflationary forces.  Positive effects remained in force:
  • TED spread held below 17 bp (basis points), as of 04/23/19
  • Net positive capital flows into high-yield ETFs & mutual funds

Copyright 2019 Advantage Data Inc. All Rights Reserved. http://www.advantagedata.com

Information in this document should not be regarded as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy bonds or any financial instruments referred to herein. All information provided in this document is believed to be accurate. However, Advantage Data and its sources make no warranties, either express or implied, as to any matter whatsoever, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. Opinions in this document are subject to change without notice. Electronic redistribution, photocopying and any other electronic or mechanical reproduction is strictly prohibited without prior written permission from Advantage Data Inc.

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Topics: High Yield, Investment Grade, Loans, Analytics, bonds, junk bonds, bond market, market analytics, New Issues, Finance, Fixed Income, News, Syndicated Bonds, syndicated, research, market update


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