CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURGES TO 135.7 NEARING AN 18-YEAR HIGH set back in October of 137.9. Despite the strong confidence among consumers the Fed is expected to cut rates fearing damage done by the trade dispute is worse than anticipated. “Consumers are once again optimistic about current and prospective business and labor market conditions.” Gold held steady as a safe-haven asset for investors fleeing volatility. The 10-year note lost 0.5 basis points. S&P -0.28%, DOW -0.09, NASDAQ -0.24%
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INVESTMENT GRADE DEBT ROSE AGAINST JUNK BONDS in net prices linked to actual trades. Car sales are expected to slump in July as increased costs drove prices higher preventing Americans from signing on the dotted line. Sales are expected to dip by 1.8 percent. Despite the recent slowdown auto dealers are not concerned, “While trade risk remains a threat, transaction prices continue to rise and economic growth is moderating, sales in the second half of the year could outperform expectations.” The 10-year note lost 0.8 basis points. S&P -0.18%, DOW +0.11%, NASDAQ -0.45%.
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U.S. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS SURGED BY 2 PERCENT IN JUNE largely due to an increase in civilian aircraft orders. Core capital goods orders rose 1.9 percent on year-over-year basis suggesting the economy is picking up steam after two months of weak data. “The U.S. economy is stronger today because the rest of the world is in a recession. That’s not the way it’s supposed to work, but that’s the way it’s working now. Because the rest of the world is in a recession, our interest rates are scraping bottom. And because our interest rates are scraping bottom, our economy is actually doing pretty darn well,” said Todd Buchholz, former White House director of economic policy under President George H.W. Bush “Eighty-eight percent of our economy has pretty much nothing at all to do with exports or imports.”
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INVESTMENT GRADE DEBT ROSE AGAINST junk bonds in net prices linked to actual trades. Total assets in US money market funds retreated from nearly 10-year highs last week as yields fall. Traders are estimating a 65 percent chance of a 25 basis point cut. “Even though the Fed will almost certainly cut rates at the end of the month, additional cuts depend heavily on the balance of economic data.” S&P-0.47%, DOW -0.30, NASDAQ -0.24% The 10-year note dipped 4.6 basis points.
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INVESTMENT-GRADE DEBT ROSE AGAINST high yield bonds in net prices linked to actual trades following weak GDP data from China revealing the country’s second-quarter growth rate fell to a 27-year low. In June retail sales and industrial production figures exceeded estimates relieving investor sentiment. S&P +0.02%, DOW +0.10, NASDAQ +0.17% The 10-year note dipped 3.5 basis points.
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THE YIELD GAP BETWEEN INVESTMENT GRADE and high yield corporate bonds is at its lowest since 2007. Just 60 basis points separate yields of the lowest-rated investment grade debt and the highest-rated high yield debt. As trends among corporate and government debt continue to point to economic downturn, many investors are selling riskier junk bonds. S&P +0.46%, DOW +0.90, NASDAQ +0.59%
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US MONEY-MARKET FUNDS pulled in $28 billion in the week ended Wednesday marking the third consecutive week of inflows rising to the highest levels since 2009. A weak global economic outlook and trade concerns have sparked fear in investors fleeing to assets with minimal risk. Middle market loan issuance rebounded in the second quarter of 2019 spiking 48 percent. “Clearly the volatility at the end of 2018 had a negative impact on all segments of the loan market in the first quarter.” The S&P 500 hit an all-time high rising above 3,000 for the first time. S&P +0.11%, DOW +0.71, NASDAQ -0.17%. The 10-year note dipped 6.5 basis points.
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JEROME POWELL SIGNALED A RATE CUT IS LIKELY IN JULY citing the Fed will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” despite global weakness and the ongoing trade spat. “Manufacturing, trade and investment are weak all around the world ... We have agreed to begin (trade) discussions again with China, and that is a constructive step. It doesn’t remove the uncertainty.” Gold rallied 1.33 percent following Powell’s dovish remarks and the major indices finished near all-time highs. The 10-year note dipped 0.3 basis points. S&P +0.45%, DOW +0.29, NASDAQ +0.77%
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BOND INVESTORS TURN BEARISH on longer-dated U.S. government debt following the release of asound June payroll report and reducing bets the Fed will cut interest rates this month. Analysts say a prolonged inverted yield curve is a predictor of a recession and has foreshadowed the last nine recessions. “It has to stay there for a couple of months before you start to worry. One month or so, we wouldn’t consider it a lengthy period of time,” said Falconio. “We believe it’s an indicator of a long-term recession, however, it isn’t signaling a recession any time soon.” The spread between the two and ten-year notes narrowed to 14.2 basis points, the closest since May 31st. The 10-year note advanced 0.8 basis points. S&P +0.12%, DOW -0.08, NASDAQ +0.54%
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U.S. STOCKS FELL TODAY, but all three major indices remain near record highs. Despite news of above-expected job growth in June, many investors anticipate an interest-rate cut at the end of the month, driving stock prices up. 10-Year Treasury yields fell 1.5 basis points as global investors continue to move into U.S. Government Bonds. S&P -0.48%, DOW -0.43%, NASDAQ -0.78%
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